Lahoud's Term Prolonged

It is bad news for Lebanon. It seems that Bashar al-Asad will insist that Lahoud have a second term of three or four years. The constitution will not be changed. Evidently the head of the Maronite Church Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir was opposed to the notion of changing the constitution and chose the lesser evil of prolonging Lahood’s term for three or four years - the same as was done for President Elias Hraoui in 1995.

He said that under such critical circumstances, Syria's allies ought to stay united to face all dangers. He also said that the nature of the regional battle led by Syria requires that Lahoud would direct the Syrian alliance in Lebanon.

Bashar painted a dire picture of two choices for politicians in the region, according to those who had been in negotiations in Damascus: either they are with Syria during its time of trial and need, or they are with America and France, which are opposed to the Syrian camp. It is therefore up to Syria's allies in Lebanon to opt for one of these two alternatives.

Zeina Abu Rizk has written an interesting article in the Daily Star on the behind the scene negotiations. It will be a sad day in Lebanon. Just as the Lebanese were beginning to regain their self-confidence as a nation, they are reminded of their unhappy reliance on Syria. Many deputies have already begun to speak out in Syria's favor, formost is Kandil.

Many Lebanese will undoubtedly be torn between two emotions. On the one hand they will curse their politicians who have rolled over and negotiated this compromise with Damascus, for being spineless. On the other hand, some will find hope in adversity and begin plotting how Damascus may have overplayed its hand. Perhaps it will galvanize the Lebanese resistance?
Some my calculate that:

In the end, it's still important that the Lebanese are unafraid to voice their displeasure. Syria's heavy handedness could lead to many more wins on the local level for the opposition. If Jumblat actually sticks with the opposition he can hurt both Lahoud and Hizbullah (who are the new Syrian allies now in cahoots with each other) in the Shouf and Baabda area elections, where without his help they would have lost to the Aounist candidate. Perhaps Jumbatt will once again try a rapprochement with the Maronites and the Christian opposition.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who insisted that he would not go along a constitutional amendment some days ago, had his Thursday meeting with Assad cancelled.

But even were Jumblatt to tempt the fates and his father's memory by rebuilding the Christian-Druze alliance that gave some backbone to the Lebanese state in the pre-civil war days, it would not be enough. The political balance of power has turned so much in Lebanon since the 1960s. The Shiites present a totally new force that makes the old calculus inoperative. The Sunnis would have to get on board with the Christians as well.

Everyone in Lebanon is waiting to hear from Harriri. The bets are that he will deliver the Sunnis to Damascus if he is given another term along with Lahoud. Then the Christian opposition will be caught out in the cold, just as it has been since Taif. Jumblatt's sympathies will be small consolation.

Nevertheless, Syria will pay a price for this. The US will be raging mad at Bashar for embarrassing them yet again. Only days ago, a team of congressmen asked Bashar not to do this. The US it is still trying to push "Democracy now" in the Middle East. Bashar's fiddle in Lebanon will underline, once again, how nothing seems to be going Washington's way in the region - certainly not democracy.