False Reports of a Coup in Syria and Analysis
"I spent most of my day trying to deny that a coup had taken place in Syria." That is how one diplomat, accounted for himself yesterday when he came to dinner with a lively crowd. I was gratified he didn't bring his bullet-proof vest.
If anyone is interested in how a blogger's hoax can cause a stir, the Syrian coup alarm is a good starting place. Here is the email that greeted me as I began my morning rituals following my first thimble-full of Turkish coffee.
Hi everyone,
Some of you may know me, some of you may not. I'm Robert Mayer from the blog Publius Pundit. I am emailing you all because you are either inside Syria, within the region, or are experts on the region. There are reports on this side of the Atlantic that there has been a possible military coup in Syria, but it is not hitting the newswires. Can any of you confirm this and send me additional information and observations? Everyone here is watching and is desperate to know. This would be a big help if any of you can confirm or deny this. Thank you all,
Robert Mayer
The Lebanese Foundation for Peace is reporting that a military coup has swept Assad’s regime because of disputes over the withdrawal from Lebanon.
A Coup d’ Etat took place in Damascus late last night. Intelligence reports coming from within the Syrian Military Command indicate the following:
A rebellion split The Syrian Army in two factions.
Since yesterday , Damascus is under the de facto control of the Syrian Army, under the command of Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kanaan, and supported by Syrian Intelligence General Rustom Ghazaleh, Syrian military General Ali Safi, and Firas Tlass son of former Minister of Defence, Mustafa Tlass. The group rebelled against the decision of President Bashar el Assad to withdraw from Lebanon and seized the Damascus military yesterday.
Around 3 am, Damascus time, the Syrian Air Force bombarded two military airfields around Damascus, the Air force base of Dumair, and the Air force base of Katana. Also, late night around 3 am, the Syrian Air force bombarded military positions of the Syrian Army west of the city of Homs.
President Bachar el Assad retreated secretly to the city of Aleppo where he is temporarily holding ground. He is massing special forces troops loyal to him and preparing himself to take back Damascus by force .
The Syrian President left in Damascus his brother in Law, Syrian Military Intelligence Chief General Assef Shawkat to negotiate a settlement with the dissidents. The situation within the Syrian military was very tense for a week and exploded yesterday. The dissident group took control of Damascus as they were very upset at the Lebanon withdrawal for they left behind a billion dollar industry.
see: http://www.free-lebanon.com/index.shtml
Dear Robert,All the same emails kept coming my way - from Stratfor intelligence unit, local reporters, and other bloggers asking me for information about the "coup" and The Lebanese Foundation for Peace, which turns out to be a LFP site. Sasa from The Syrian News Wire, explained that "they are the post-Phalange group (the Israeli army’s proxy in Lebanon during the Civil War) presently in exile in Israel.
Someone has a rich imagination. All is normal here as far as I can tell. Sunny spring day and everyone is bustling about happily. One diplomat just emailed about what he should wear to dinner tonight - casual or formal? Didn't suggest bullet proof vest, so I assume all is normal.
Best to you from Damascus.
Joshua
To follow how the story unrolled and how Nagi Najjar, who maintains the LFP site responded, read the post and particularly the comments at Robert's site.
Najjar defended his coup information by writing:
If the shooting didn’t started yet or Joshua Landis was invited at a dinnerA comment by "blue" reads:
party with the Military Attache there without a bulletproof vest doesn’t mean
that the situation is “normal” within the Syrian Regime.
There are things happening they are not aware and the Baath Regime is
not going to tell a US journalist nor brief the Embassy and the CIA station
there what is going on within. We are expected to receive additional information
soon, we will publish it.
We believe our “sources” are good and never betrayed us before…
Another added:Josh Landis may have been right about this, but he often appears to be
nothing but an apologist for Assad’s regime. Sad, really, that an academic in
the US turns to propaganda for an authoritarian ruler.
Josh Landis’s agenda would seem to be to maintain this myth that the brutal Syrian regime is good for the Syrian people.This morning Robert wrote me another email:
News flash: it’s not! It’s killing innocent Syrian people.
Quite frankly I don’t believe news that comes out of Syria, whether from LFP, The New York Times, or SNW; the country’s too tightly controlled.
Hi everyone,
Just following up with you all. Thanks to all of your emails, this story has effectively gotten around the whole blogosphere and has been debunked.
The original offending information, which is STILL being propogated, is located here: http://free-lebanon.com/
Thank you all very much for helping dispel the rumors. If any of you in particular know about the Lebanese Foundation for Peace, it's purpose, etc.... as they are the ones dispensing this information, please let me know. I am very interested to learn about them.
All the best,
Robert Mayer
http://www.publiuspundit.com
Comment:
Najjar and a few others will be disappointed to learn that information does get out of Syria fairly easily, despite ham-fisted attempts by the government to control the news flow. Bashar liberalized the control of information in Syria and promoted much freer debate He will have a hard time restricting it even if he wants to.
Bashar seems to have consolidated his grip on power internally, even as Syria took a beating on the Lebanon front. In fact, by undoing Hariri in Lebanon and shunting aside his supporters here in Syria, the president has been tightening his control over the internal situation.
This strategy may back-fire in the long run because the president will have narrowed his social base around his family. But in the short run, he is firmly in control.
Yes, there are members of the military who are upset that the president didn't get out of Lebanon five years ago. Most were not upset that they had to withdraw. They complain that business interests kept Syria in Lebanon too long and set the military up for this humiliating withdrawal. They are not about to make a coup over it, however.
The Sunni business elite of Damascus is clearly upset at how Hariri was undone. Many had connections to him and to those around him who were doing well in Beirut. He was a towering example of Sunni business and political success, not only for the Lebanese, but also for the Syrians. Even people who had no connection to him viewed his success as a symbol of what can be accomplished with good leadership and economic acumen.
Whether his murder will have "confessional" fallout in Syria, as it has in Lebanon, has yet to be seen. I suspect it will harden the wall of distrust that has always divided the Alawite ruling elite from the Damascene business community, which largely controls the economy in Syria. There are some signs of that already.
All the same, the Sunni business elite is not organized for formal opposition. Damascene business leaders will sulk in their tents. Many must be worried that Bashar is becoming more like his father and less like the reformer they were hoping for. Some will resent the fact that he has strengthened himself and his family. Perhaps they saw in Hariri's rise to power in Beirut an example which they hoped to follow in Damascus?
Much will depend on how Bashar treats reform going forward. So far, his record is one of little dramatic achievement. If he does not become his father, content to hold power tightly and rely on stability to keep him in power, but rather uses his newly won authority to make so important changes, the Hariri affair may actually turn to his advantage.
posted by Joshua Landis @ 3/18/2005 02:58:00 AM
24 comments
links to this post
24 Comments:
"Undone", and "Hariri affair"?? I know you're that you're an academic Josh and that you avoid moralizing or using value-laden language, but please don't make the murder of Hariri sound like its regular political shuffling in the middle east. Its not like he fired a minister or made a small political blunder... We middle easterners may be accustumed to Hama rules, but we haven't descended to this level of savagery so that blowing up Hariri this way is just business as usual. 800,000 Lebanese from all confessions will attest to that. This crime is a display of this regime's moral bankrupcy, and, frankly, to its complete isolation of the rest of the 21st century. Syrians, Lebanese, Sunnis and Alawites all see it as such. Please Josh don't loose your perspective.
yours,
Outraged
You wrote 1392 words to discard the news of a faked coup in Syria.
I am wondering how many words will you write to defend this regime when the "Hariri affair" and the shameful withdrawal from Lebanon will put an end to this regime.
wohhh!
"In fact, by undoing Hariri in Lebanon ..."
Could you elaborate on that please...
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
Blogger's comments suck. I'm sorry for the duplicate. That's why I changed mine to HaloScan.
What's great about this post Josh is that you actually return to some critical assessment, which has been lacking in your last few posts.
Here are the points you rightly establish, which should be highlighted in order to dismiss some really horrible nonsense in the media:
- Bashar is not hampered by any Old Guard figures.
- Bashar is fully in charge.
- The center of power is Bashar's immediate family, including his in-laws and cousins (Makhlouf and Shawkat).
- It seems from your assessment that you agree that Syria "undid" Hariri. And based on the two points above, Bashar is directly responsible for Hariri's assassination.
- Bashar, by consolidating power so, is revealing his true colors as a typical dictator, and revealing just how silly everyone who believed him to be a reformer really are.
- Bashar has a less than mediocre "record" of reform. That seems set to continue. What you still don't get is that he is like his father. That's all he can ever be.
- Bashar's murder of Hariri has alientated the Sunni business elite even more, although they are not (yet) organized and they're too emasculated to make a move (on their own). This elite however control the economy, and with the loss of Lebanon, they become more important. Not a great time to piss them off. So Bashar has to start making room for remarks about "tribalism" in Syria, as the already bitter confessional divisions between Sunnis and Alawis are set to harden. They've already been exacerbated in Lebanon. In fact, the fact that some Shiites aligned themselves with Bashar has caused an even bigger anti-Syrian Sunni turnout and an isolation of Shiites. Furthermore, all the neighboring Sunni Arab states have shunned Bashar. Considering that Satloff piece, and the notion of "constructive instability" and the way some Arab states are already swiping at each other, I would look for some movement trying to accelerate demands of political participation by Kurds and Sunni Arabs. Lebanon won't be Bashar's only headache. I would look for sustained pressure for wider political participation and reform. Ammar and Satloff may be optimists on this, I am not all that hopeful. I think Bashar and his family will clamp down and dig in. That's what they're programmed to do.
- As such Hariri's murder was calculated to both throw Lebanon in turmoil, as well as to rattle the Syrian Sunnis. Both are/were an existential threat to Bashar's kleptocracy.
- Despite all the bombastic (pathetically defensive) rhetoric, the withdrawal from Lebanon is a humiliation. The hurt national pride of the Syrians, which pathologically rallied around their hapless dictator, is more proof of massive humiliation. Unfortunately, it was caused exclusively by Bashar.
Now let me add a few things you left out. When you talked about the 500,000 people who came to chant for Bashar, you regrettably left out the small (but highly symbolic) opposition rally. You also left out what happened to them and how they got mercilessly beaten (women and children). You also left out Riad at-Turk's comments quoted in an-Nahar (even though I sent it to you) as well as other letters or op-eds by opposition figures sent to an-Nahar (that I also sent you). Here's an English summary from Naharnet. Michael Young noted it in a H&R post as well.
I'll add to that how Bashar prevented dailies from entering Syria the day after the massive million-man anti-Syrian march in Lebanon. Oh, and for good measure, kicked out a correspondent of al-Arabiya. Excellent liberalizing of the media. Maybe in Damascus this passes as "reform."
So nothing is finished. The UN report on Hariri's assassination will likely bear out the conclusions you came to that I highlighted above. The centralization of power leads to centralization of responsibility. Now Bashar is responsible for any trouble in Iraq, Israel/Palestinian Territories, Lebanon that can be traced to some Syrian-based or Syrian-sponsored group. That's why even reform won't be enough. Reform doesn't go hand in hand with holding a gun to the head of your neighbors in order to cut a deal. The reforms will pale before that. No Western country will adopt them until the way of the gun has been set aside (this is what's being asked of Hizbullah by the entire world, including the EU).
Considering that the Syrian regime knows nothing else, I predict they will fail to do anything substantial. The Jordanian Al-Ra'iy seems to agree.
Does anyone really believe that syria would be so foolish as to ruin its standing in greater cham and be involved at any level in the hariri death? if you believe this than you are the real fool. there is no gain here for them if they were, and they will NOT do anything unless there is gain for them. you should look to the south of lebnan for the culprits, they have the most to gain here i.e Sheba, Golan etc.. also if you recall a few years back a similar incident happened in beirut with their involvment....
ok
Why do totalitarian regimes behave as they do? Who knows?
Yes, it does seem irrational for the Syrian regime to order the murder of Hariri, but I think the behaviour of Saddam Hussein with regards to WMD’s and Bashar Asad with regards to extending Lahoud’s tenure has confounded most sensible political pundits.
The London Times seems to be convinced that Hariri’s murder was Syrian orchestrated:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-1530888,00.html
Josh,
I agree with you that some of these guys have a rich imagination; I will go further and add that they are desperate. Despite the fact that most Syrians would line up to defend their government (including many expats to whom I talk daily), rumors circulate about divisions, coups (etc) in Syria.
As to Tony's opinions about reform, I know that, besides Rami Makhlouf (note: RM is one of the largest employers in Syria through the businesses he is able to manage through his connections, including being Bashar's cousin), the main losers of economic reform will be the suspiciously wealthy Sunni (and non-Sunni) businessmen.
Josh, keep your objectivity (if you are an apologist to the Syrian authorities, then I am the pope).
I am a true Lebanese patriot, and I want the next elections free of ANY outside influence, Syrian or other.
Post-script: I asked an Alawi expat friend today about his feelings regarding Bashar. He is related to Hatoum, the only significant Baath member to be ever executed in Syria (in 1967). This guy does not particularly like the Assads; oddly, he is willing to go back to Syria and serve (he has some technical expertise) to help any Syrian patriotc leadership (Alawi, Sunni, or other, including Bashar) if Syria is in danger. [Now, I think this is also true of the Lebanese, especially the way Patriarch Sfeir has conducted himself to deflate Walid Joumblatt's rhetoric].
Post-Post-Script: Anything about the Syrian opposition groups for the independent reader?
What lame-assed disinformation operation.
First of all, these coup reports are laughable, particularly considering this "Free Lebanon" group that is their source. Secondly, the names used in these reports confirm that this clown (I mean, Najjar) has not even a shallow understanding of Syrian affairs. Though powerful within the security establishment, Ghazi Kanaan is not a military man, and does not have much power within the military. As for Roustom Ghazaleh, he's keeping a low profile these days and has even less clout, to begin with. He also has absolutely no military power in Syria at all. As for Firas Tlass, he's a civilian businessman and holds no sway, whatsoever in either the military or security forces. The only other Tlass could be Manaf (Firas' brother) and he's very closely aligned with Maher Assad in the Republican Guard, which is a strong, loyal pillar of the regime. If this clown (Najjar) wants to be taken seriously, he needs to grasp the basics...maybe then, I can promote him from a clown to a joker!
Tony, your analysis is rather binary and simplistic, implying that Bashar is either a committed reformer or a hard-core dictator. In fact, the truth is that he's somewhere in the middle. He does sit atop a regime that is dictatorial in nature. However, I do believe that he has introduced reforms, albeit at a snail's pace. He also has to contend with very powerful, well-entrenched "marakez kiwa" within the Syrian military, security and party establishments. He can't push his own reforms and maintain the stability of his regime (and hence, country) at the same time. That's not to say that I agree with his policies so far, but in the interest of objectivity, one has to acknowledge the challenges he faces. You can't hold him responsible for banning a newspaper on a particular day, unless you have already pre-judged him, in which case you're looking for any reason to make your point, and hence, are not interested in the truth. The fact is that Bashar is not the decision-maker in every major and minor decision in the country. There are many others bodies, some of which are very strict, bureaucratic, intransigent and backward. The 'Raqqabeh' (Censorship) within the Ministry of Information, which is aligned to the Intelligence, is one of those...and they are the ones who make the decisions about which newspapers come in and which are banned.
Some have gone too far in tying the sectarian issues in Lebanon and Syria together, such as the effects of Hariri's death on Syrian Sunnis. This is much exaggerated, if it has any basis at all. Syrian Sunnis don't feel any connection to Hariri, and never have. Yes, there might be a feeling of alienation among some, but for the most part, Syrians (including Sunnis) are more concerned about reforms that lead to easing the of economic and political restrictions and an overall improvement in their daily lives and living standards. Of course, the macro-political question remains an issue, but a secondary one, in my not-so-humble opnion.
Firas
Tony you are right about a centralized decision in the Syrian government and how it points the finger at Bashar for any problem. But why the Syrians regime withdraw out of Lebanon made every single Syrian humiliated? That It doesn’t make sense?! Initially, was the Interference in Lebanon in the 70’s made out of a Syrian “Democratic” decision or Lebanese Democratic Parliament? AS SYRIANS TONY we lost Blood and Money for what? Who made more fortune out the Syrian presence in Lebanon Tony? Syrian Pockets or Lebanese Pockets?
“So Bashar has to start making room for remarks about "tribalism" in Syria, as the already bitter confessional divisions between Sunnis and Alawis are set to harden.”That was in the old days buddy! Now Sunnies and Alawis are partners and deal brokers in Syria. Alwites have changed from Camouflage to Tuxedos way before Basher took over the government. There are lots of poor Alawites who hate the government just like Sunnies do. There is new Generation of Alawits in Syria and in Damascus in particular who lost their attributes as “Alawites” they grew up in Damascus schools they live, think, and worship like Sunnies. They even make fun out of their back home accent Tony, unlike Lebanon Syrian society is rock solid one and time make better not bitter.
Why you like to intimidate Syrians so much? If you were hurt (personally) by any Syrian or pro-Syrian regime force in Lebanon, that doesn’t make all Syrians guilty of your calamity.
firas and anon 12:31,
we keep hearing how syrians are not sectarian, the syrians are great, the syrians are wonderful, the sunnis do not resent being ruled by alawis etc etc. but fact is you don't know the truth and you won't know until you have some kind of democracy in syria. why are the alawis preventing it? probably because they know something you don't know.
Anon at 1:27
Sectarian issues in Syria are more acute than in Lebanon.
Nothing like a false report of a coup to stimulate comments. The discussion raises some interesting questions:
1. How stable is the Bashar regime? Did Bashar leave Damascus?
2. Is there a significant group within the military that could challange Bashar?
3. Who within the government are the most influential in foreign policy decisions?
4. What credence is there to the hypothesis that the assassination of al Hairi was the work of the Syrian political party operatives, who got the explosives from Hizbollah that iran had previously supplied?
5. Was the assassination planned and carried out with Bashar's direction, or at least assent?
Like Anonymous at 8:16 I would say about Hariri's death that
"you should look to the south of lebnan for the culprits, they have the most to gain here i.e Sheba, Golan etc.. "
bomb in beirut? meaning anyone?
To 1:27
I feel like you’re saying sectarian is not great (unlike many Lebanese on this blog) it sounds music to my ear ultimitly Syria will become Domocratic without Lebanese style civil war. We are not saying Syria is so wonderful we are saying it is just different…that’s all. Why? Three reasons why Syria is not like Lebanon: and sectarian system has no place in it. Conservatism, Public Education, Religious Teachings.
Conservatism, it is always Conservative Syria vs. Liberal Lebanon. Just compare between Christians in Syria and those who belong to the same church community (Ra’aieh) in Lebanon and see how they are different about issues like Divorce, Mixed Parties, Drinking, etc Now apply the same thing on Sunnies Specially in Beirut it is hard even to tell that they Muslims. Liberalism is a double edge sword as much it brings more and fresh ideas to the country as much as it makes it vulnerable to any change or civil war. Same thing applies on conservatism as much as it stabilizes the country as much it pushes it to backhandedness.
Public Education, Dr. Landis has made an audacious effort to study the Syrian curriculum focus on Religions Public Education. Despite the fact that I disagree with him on lot of issues (I took my initial education in Syria) but he was fair on many points:
“To Syria’s credit, it must be stated, that no other Arab country, as far as I can tell, expressly states in its Islamic classes that Christians will go to heaven. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, condemns Christians to damnation and categorizes them as unbelievers (kuffar).”
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/Islamic%20Education%20in%20Syria.htm
I would like to add that Muslims, Chrisitans, Druz, Alawies students sit side by side in most of the schools across the state. They are Natural Friends. In Lebanon each sect has it is own school, own boy scouts, sport team...Etc. That was one of good outcome of the secular Syria.
Religious Teachings, It is funny to see in Lebanon how communities look very Liberal from the outside but when it comes impression or cliché about the other sect or Religion they go to the extreme. They become ultra fundamentalist ready to die for the sect not for the Liberty of Lebanon as they claim and the enemy becomes the next door neighbor. In Syria however, (even before Assad) you don’t find an outspoken religious Figure in any Mosque or Church who goes harsh (in public or in a small bible or Quranic studies) on criticizing other sect or religion.
That’s how Lebanon and Syria are different".
Anonymous at 2:01
Please don't put words in my mouth. I did not say that Syrians are great, that everything in Syria is wonderful and that we don't have problems. Au contraire, I think Syria has many fundamental problems that require urgent attention.
As for the sectarian issues, they exist in Syria as they do in all other societies in the Middle East; albeit less acutely. I also take issue with the simplistic view of Sunni vs. Alawi tension. It's not so binary; the truth is much more complex. As others here have pointed out, there are many Alawis in Syria who are vehemently against the regime. There were many prominent Alawis who opposed the government and its policies from the very beginning; some have been assassinated, others jailed and many more exiled or committed to silence. Some of the most outspoken critics of the regime today are Alawi. Some examples are Dr. Aktham Naissa and Nizar Nayyouf. In addition, most Alawis in Syria are still poor people who have not benefited from the regime...
On the other hand, the regime's pillars included many Sunnis from its very beginnings. Defence Minister Mustafa Tlass, Armed Forces Chiefs of Staff Hikmat Shihabi and Hasan Turkmani, as well as Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam and Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa and so many more in the army, party and security services have been Sunnis.
The fact is that in any dictatorship, appointments to sensitive positions are based on trust and that translates into people from extended family and hometown/region. We have seen this before, when a strongman from Hama (for example) appoints a large number of Hamwis, etc. It just so happens that Hafez Assad was an Alawi and he came from an area of the country that is predominantly Alawi.
So, please...let's scratch the surface a little bit and use some analysis when discussing things before we start blasting blanket statements. Many qualifications are necessary. Sure, Syria is not immune from the events surrounding it - in Lebanon over 15 years, in Iraq more recently, in addition to the rise of terrorists and criminals like Ben Laden and Zarkawi. All of this contributes to sectarian tensions. In addition, internal problems of the Muslim Brotherhood gangs and the government's brutal repression of them fanned the sectarian flames that surely existed under the surface. However, in my opinion, with the exception of some hardcore elements, these sentiments are nowhere near as acute as they are in Lebanon.
Overall, sectarianism and the larger problem of the role of religion in society is an affliction that we all suffer from in the Middle East. Unless it is addressed in a mature way within a serious constitutional/legal framework and enforced carefully, it will continue to spread and infect everyone...and no one is immune from it.
Firas
enjoyed reading whether false or truth, keep after the SOB until u put him next to Saddam.
please hurry up, we have 20 more to go.
vxcvzxcv
Firas, I enjoyed reading your comments. For they do not paint the picture of Syria in simplistic black and white tones as many others try to do. It is certainly easy for one to be an arm-chair coach and make all sorts of comments about Syria and its future. I think Bashar and his inner circle (which is not his father's) have dealt many bad hands in Lebanon and now are enjoying the consequences. This bas behavior was their own doing and they could have avoided painting themselves into a corner. But one would have to allow for the fact that Bashar has been on the defensive and taking many political hits starting on the day that took the position to oppose the war on Iraq and been paying a price for it ever since. It would be unfair to say that he did not want reform, he did not want libraty for his people because he is simply the son of the previous regime. And for Alawi vs. Suni, They Syrians are not as sectarian as the rest of ME. Yes, people have resented that the associates of the regime are abusing their power and these associates are hated not because they were Alawis or Sunis, they are hated because they do abuse their power.
Khaled
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