Reform in Syria — Who wants it? By Jansen

The Jordan Times has an opinion piece by Michael Jansen, which argues the Baath Party Conference in Syria created the opening for "major economic reforms." It also argues that the United States is "stirring up trouble in Lebanon with the aim of blaming it on Syria and calling for regime change in Damascus." Thanks to "dsp," a "Syria Comment" reader, for sending it along.

Reform in Syria — who wants it?
By Michael Jansen
Jordan Times

The Syrian government is engaged in an existential struggle on two fronts. On the domestic front, it is trying to transform its command economy into a social market economy and its Baath Party-dominated political system into a pluralistic democracy where the party will remain a leading player. On the external front, the government is under serious threat from the neoconservatives in the Bush administration who want to effect regime change in Damascus. Their aim, of course, is to bring in a new government which would be prepared to deal with Israel without demanding the return of Syrian land occupied by the Jewish state in 1967.

The neocons are preparing the way for regime change in Syria in much the same way they did in Iraq. They are using the world media to demonise the Syrian Baath Party regime and are trying to embroil the UN in Syrian affairs. Ultimately, the US can be expected to create a crisis between Syria and Lebanon or between Syria and Iraq, with the aim of providing a pretext to sanction or intervene militarily in Syria.

Damascus is attempting to counter the US campaign in several ways: focusing on its own affairs rather than the Arab scene, instituting major domestic reforms, reaching out to Arab and other external investors, and playing a positive role in the region. To save itself and defend Arab nationalism, or “Arabism”, the Syrian government, the last remaining proponent of “Arabism”, must create clearly observable momentum for political and economic change within its own society. Syria is now running a race with the neocons who are determined to use the political and economic failings of the Baath to topple the regime.

Although President Bashar Assad has been gradually moving towards major economic and political changes since he assumed power in 2000, upon the death of his father, the real push for reform is just beginning. His reform agenda was endorsed during the Baath Party regional congress held from June 6 to 9. Syrians I interviewed this week during a visit to Damascus agreed that the president is seriously pursuing reform and that he has launched the process which will take place gradually, over some months and years. Analysts argue that this process is clearly observable for anyone prepared to see what is happening. The problem is that Western officials and media remain blind to change in Syria.

Dr Nabil Sukkar, an independent economic analyst, said that the president had elicited from the party congress endorsement for a social market economy and major changes in the political system. This amounts to a dramatic shift from the party's command economy ideology, Sukkar observed. The goal is a “market economy with social justice”, rather than rampant capitalism. The congress agreed to allow other parties to function and has accepted multiparty or multicandidate elections in 2007. The president has also replaced veteran party figures with younger men, close to him, and begun reform of the security services with the aim of consolidating the multiple agencies created by his father. In Sukkar's view, an important “threshold” has been crossed. “The next step is implementation.” He expects this to be done on a step-by-step basis. Sukkar, one of Syria's most consulted analysts, said: “I am optimistic.”

Dr Buthaina Shaaban, minister of expatriates, agreed. The congress produced a “major change, not merely in persons but in strategies, policies, approach, goals. There is a determination to fight corruption, put the right person in the right place, bring technical expertise to establish the rule of law, pass a new law for political parties, amend the emergency law, and provide for private media. These decisions will take a year or two to implement.... There is determination to build the country.”

Shaaban, who served as spokeswoman for the congress, revealed that “everything was discussed frankly, nothing was taboo. It was a four-day workshop. The president gave a short speech at the opening because he did not want to dictate, he wanted dialogue. The Baath Party has to gain people's confidence”, which has waned over its 35 years in power.

Other independent commentators said the president himself is taking decisions. They argued that he is strongly committed to reform. One remarked that the “exodus” of Syrian troops and intelligence operatives from Lebanon did not “tarnish” the president's image. “He is very popular. He is accessible to the people. He goes to restaurants, concerts, other functions, talks to people. He took his children to the bumper cars.... Hafez Assad wanted to be feared, Bashar wants to be loved.”

This analyst also made the point that the opposition largely consists of old men who have no constituencies — early Baathists and Nasserites. “Exiled parties do not count for much.” The commentator said the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties should be legalised because they are more of a threat if they go underground. Finally, he argued that there is no real challenge to the party because it is well entrenched and the people have no experience of any other rulers.

One sign of the dramatic change that has taken place was the appointment of Dr Abdullah Dardari, a non-party member who is a Sunni from Damascus, to the post of deputy premier for economic affairs. He is the first figure who does not belong to the party command to take up this post. Furthermore, the choice of Damascene Dardari means that the capital, which has been excluded from power for decades, is now involved in building Syria. Western-educated Dardari also heads the Planning Bureau which has been drawing up the country's economic strategy.

Dardari met this correspondent in his new office in the building housing the Council of Ministers. “The party congress was better than I expected. It took courageous decisions at a time when Syria is under strong pressure [from both domestic and external forces] to change its economic and social system and declare multiparty political elections, freedom and democracy,” he asserted.

My interview with Dardari took place shortly after he chaired for the first time a meeting of the Economic Committee. “I felt that an ideological barrier has been lifted,” he stated. The committee's job is to lay down detailed steps for economic reform till the end of the year.

He revealed that chicken-and-egg discussions over whether economic or political reform should come first are “no longer an issue. They are interrelated, walk hand-in-hand. We are going to recreate the middle class which provides the foundation for a healthy political life.

“By instituting a more participatory system [of government], we will encourage people to invest. Arab and Syrian money is already coming here. We have billions of dollars in projects. There is a boom due to high oil prices and Arabs know the risks of investing in the West.”

He made the point that the Arabs are “concerned for Syria” and know that its “stability is in their own interest... Syria is the only country which is secular enough or modern enough [to assert leadership]. If Syria is prosperous and stable, it will quell fundamentalism and extremism. If Syria is prosperous, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq will be prosperous. Syria is a trendsetter in the region. If Syria adopts reforms, others will do the same.... We want the Arabs to be nationalists, liberal, socially conscious and to respect freedom and democracy”.

Reform in Syria is precisely what the neocons and their Israeli ally do not want. Someone is stirring up trouble in Lebanon with the aim of blaming it on Syria and calling for regime change in Damascus.

Thursday, June 23, 2005