The Local Elections of 2007 by Ibrahim Hamidi

MAKE OR BREAK?
(This story by Ibrahim Hamidi originally appeared in "Syria Today" in this month's issue.)

2007 has the potential to be a great year of progress for Syria with the promise of free-list local elections ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections. It also has the potential for Crisis. Here, al-Hayat Damascus bureau chief Ibrahim Hamidi looks ahead to a make or break year.

The year 2007 will, no doubt, be a turning point in Syrian political history; a year that is expected to mark the end of an era and the beginning of a new one, with parliamentary elections, local administration elections and presidential elections all taking place simultaneously.

If the discussions currently circulating among Syria’s political elite following the recommendations of June’s Ba’ath Party Conference do indeed come true, the year 2007 will witness Syria’s soft landing from a politically-authoritarian, economically-centralized regime to a pluralist regime embracing market forces.

However, internal frustrations, hesitant decisions and a poor awareness of the country’s socio-economic problems could equally turn that year into a catastrophe, threatening Syria’s stability. So how could 2007 turn out on a positive curve?
The 10th Ba’ath Party Conference came out with many political recommendations including the “revision” of the emergency law - in place since the early 1960s - the elimination of extraordinary courts - also established during the 1960s - and passing new legislations for political parties and local administration elections. Moreover, there was a recommendation to reconsider the Syrian Constitution “to match the above recommendations”.

Looking to the full half of the glass, this means that the year 2007 will mark the end of a reign, started with the Ba’athists assumtion of power in 1963. The circles of pro-regime reformists say the coming years will witness preparations for a “bloodless coup” including the issuance of a law allowing new political parties to take part in the local elections of 2007.

One of those optimists, the Minister of Local Administration and Environment Hilal Atrash, told me that a political decision has already been taken to prepare for a new local administration law that will allow the more than 15,000 members of the municipal councils to be freely elected. This would mark an end to the previous system of nominations and closed lists that are controlled by the Ba’ath Party and its partners in the National Progressive Front, the parliamentary alliance of parties authorised by the Ba’ath.

Atrash said the decision coincided with other major steps towards “decentralization” and the delegation of more powers to local authorities in order to establish “good governance” based on “procedure facilitation” and “red tape reduction”.
Handling open list elections will mean that 2007 will, for the first time since the Ba’ath assumed power, allow Syrians to elect more than 15,000 local council representatives. Local governors will still appointed by virtue of presidential decrees.

Syria has 14 governorates, 107 towns and 2480 villages. The population of these units elect 15029 representatives for the respective councils.

Optimists also look at the local administration elections as a warm up exercise for the parliamentary elections, to elect 250 MPs, and for the presidential election.
Seven years will have passed since the inauguration of President Bashar a-Assad who told foreign reporters that Syria will have democratic elections.

The current changes will include reconsidering Article 8 of the Constitution of 1972, which states that the Ba’ath Party is “ruler of state and society”. However, contrary to these rosy expectations, there are some distressing ideas that 2007 could be the trigger for an internal crisis. How?

Some observers think that the Ba’ath Conference recommendations were developed on the principle of “constructive ambiguity”; while they look like a good foundation for reform they may actually be as good for hardliners. The recommendation talked about separating “the Party from the power”, but at the same time they stated that prime minister as well as parliament speaker should be Ba’athists; this is a contradiction. They talked about a new parties law while stressing “security and stability”, which can be a good pretext for more inflexibility and regression; another contradiction.

Pessimists think the coming years will witness wide-scale regression in terms of refocusing on security issues and not developing any major political or economic reforms. They say there will be only some cosmetic reform, such as establishing unpopular parties and annexing them to the NPF as was the case with the Syrian Social National Party, or even refraining from ratifying the Association Agreement with the EU to avoid any serious commitment towards reform.

What is more worrying in fact is the fact the year 2007 will more likely witness a number of negative developments: the further deterioration in oil production, currently at 470,000 barrel a day, and even the possible end of oil exports; unemployment will reach 20% of the workforce, with more than 380,000 newcomers entering the labour market every year.

Four other factors loom large and foreboding on the horizon. The first is the rising Islamic tide in secular Syria and the increase in radical groups, some of whom have already resorted to violence. Close beside that is the fact that 80% of the unemployed are between 18 and 25 years’ old and the fact that the selective opening of the economy is making the rich richer and the poor poorer, with Syria now home to 5.3 million citizens within the poverty zone and 2.2 million of them “can not get the basic needs”, according to UNDP report released lately.

Meanwhile the middle class, often perceived as the guarantor of stability, is increasingly melting away. There is also the negative impact on patriotism, with the country recently witnessing several sectarian/ethnic clashes due to a variety of political, economic and regional reasons triggered by the changes in Iraq, where the political structure has shifted towards sectarianism after the Iraqi regime failure to build a civil state.

Nonetheless, observers cannot draw a clear picture of Syria’s future; every day there are contradicting indications. Today we can say there is optimism as regards the scope of the problems and the appropriateness of the decisions made; tomorrow we face the opposite. The only thing to do is wait and see what the future holds.