News Round Up: Nov. 30, 2005 - Hizb and Hussam
Nick Blanford has added some interesting observations on the Hizbullah-Syria connection, which I added to my original post: Hizbullah and Syria.
Many readers have asked whether I believe Hussam's testimony. The question is not whether I believe him; rather, it is that all his testimony is now highly suspect, which has done great damage to the Mehlis investigation and his preliminary findings. If the Lebanese see his Syrian evidence as reminiscent of a "Chinese style show trial," the Syrians find his Lebanon testimony reminiscent of George Bush's WMD hype. Yes, I thought Hussam giving his testimony was visually appealing, which has a big impact on the way he was interpreted here in Syria. I also found Colin Powell's testimony about Saddam Hussein's WMD in front of the UN visually appealing. I like Powell; he is a good messenger, but the message turned out to be false. What we are now left with in the Mehlis Report is that Syria had motive for wanting Hariri out of the way. We do not have more than that. We also had motive that Saddam wanted WMD, but he turned out not to have any. Let Mehlis continue his investigation.
Vienna Interrogation Delayed, Jumblat Warns Against Attempt to Rescue 4 Detained Generals
The interrogation of the five Syrian officers linked to Rafik Hariri's assassination has been delayed till next week, An Nahar reported on Wednesday....
"Returning the flavor to the Truth," by Joseph Samaha in As-Safir
Click here for source in Arabic: English from Mideastwire.com
On November 29, Joseph Samaha commented in the independent Lebanese newspaper As Safir that: "What Houssam Houssam said in the interview broadcasted by Syrian cable TV and then repeated in the news conference yesterday is literally the same as what he told the international committee investigating the assassination of prime minister Rafik Harriri except for one difference: Now he is claiming that what he told the investigative committee was forcefully taken from him under threat of force plus bribery and that he was taught what to say to the committee."
Samaha continued: "Houssam's claims are very serious. For the report delivered by Deitliv Mehlis to the Security Council about the investigation into the crime was based, at least in part, on two testimonies. The first was made by Mohammad Zouheir Al Seddike, witness now turned suspect, a man who is a known crook and who is also accused of being enticed with bribes to testify. The second was made by none other than Houssam Houssam himself who moved from the position of ally to the prosecution to the position of ally to the defense. It has to be admitted that without these two testimonies the report loses a lot of its credibility especially regarding possible suspects."
Samaha continued: "What Houssam did require that at least a modicum of regard be restored to the 'truth,' or as much of it as was uncovered by Deitliv Mehlis. But this regard cannot be restored with silence, or pretended ignorance or underestimation. Nor will it be restored with a few lines denying all that has been said or by pretending that the investigation is a train that cannot be derailed or slowed by anything until it reaches its final destination."
He continued: "The only way to restore some augustness to the truth is through utilizing complete transparency in the investigation coupled to a detailed and clear reply. We all followed, as much as it was possible, the effort put in by the international and Lebanese investigators, the techniques they used, and the questions they posed to try to solve this crime (who stands to benefit from the crime? Who are the agitators? What do the phone records tell us? What part was played by bribery and corruption? ) and it is now obligatory to expend a similar effort to validate or dismiss these statements by Houssam." - As Safir, Lebanon
[end]
Investigation committee quashes Syrian witness' claims about his testimony
Click here for source in Arabic
A front-page article published on November 29 in the privately-owned Lebanese newspaper An Nahar reported that individuals accused by a controversial Syrian witness of having bribed him to give false testimony had refuted his claims.
"While Damsacus presented the statements of its citizen Hussam Taher Hussam yesterday… as proof of the collapse of the international investigation into the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, official Lebanese security sources revealed that Hussam had been in the custody of Lebanese Internal Security Forces, arrested on charges of fraud, a while before the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri and not after the assassination, as Hussam had claimed," the article said.
An Nahar added that Hussam was summoned yesterday by the Lebanese investigative magistrate, Elias Eid, to testify as a witness, but Hussam did not show up. "The statement issued by the international investigation committee, in response to the press conference which Hussam Taher Hussam had held in Damascus yesterday, revealed that he had showed up voluntarily before the committee, as attested by his written and certified statement, which refutes his subjugation to any threat, pressure or bribe. And the statement did not confirm that Hussam is the same person who was described as 'the masked witness'."
Meanwhile, Communications Minister Marwan Hamade, also refuted what Hussam had said in his press conference, describing Hussam's claims as "a comedy, and another ominous branch of the Syrian intelligence apparatus which, after having aggressed us with car bombs and threats, now turns to lies and a smear campaign through a person we have never seen before." Hussam claimed to have seen Hamade several times at the international investigation committee's headquarters. He accused Hamade of being one of those who instructed him to give a false testimony under pressure.
Similarly, An Nahar's Jibran Tueini also refuted the witness's statements, while the Syrian investigation committed questioned the credibility of the international investigation committee following the Hussam's statements, according to the An Nahar article. - An Nahar, Lebanon
[end]
Noureddine:"Lebanese less supportive of the resistance than ever before"
Click here for source in Arabic: Mideastwire.com
On November 29, Sateh Noureddine commented in the privately owned Lebanese newspaper As Safir that: "It cannot be claimed that Lebanon rose in unanimous defense and support for its resistance while it was facing the Israelis in tough battles last week. While the public scene of official and unofficial support was touching, the violations of this scene were wider and more serious than ever before."
He continued: "Disregarding the black pages written in Lebanese history by those who collaborated with the enemies and nearly shared power with them in the early 1980s, there was never any true Lebanese unanimity about the threat posed by Israel and the need to counter and resist it. Political speech was directed by the public sentiment of the majority and this plus the regional setting served to aid the resistance in liberating a major part of the Israeli occupied Lebanese territories.
"But this last episode left the impression that the resistance was on its own this time. The official statements released in support of the resistance were not totally convincing. This was partly due to a legitimate fear that the battles might rage far beyond the borders, but what is most disturbing is that this lack of support uncovered a deep hatred towards Hezbollah that goes beyond the fight against Israel and is due to the deep chasms in the fabric of the Lebanese society that have not mended since the withdrawal of the Syrians. The failure of the resistance's latest operation was used as an excuse to start stabbing the resistance in the back and to start looking for venues at which to discuss the "necessary" disarmament of the resistance in compliance with Security Council resolution 1559. Some even went so far as to predict the end of the resistance, which explains the severity of the speech made by the General Secretary of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah.
"What is certain is that the resistance is not as secure as it used to be, and Hezbollah is responsible for this development, because of its overblown victory speech back in 2000, because it surrendered to the allure of the 'military might that owns 14,000 missiles', and because they chose to leave the Lebanese accord at a very critical juncture in Lebanon's history to side with the traditional Syrian ally.
"But this doesn't mean that the resistance has lost or will lose its reason for being, especially for the people of southern Lebanon, who have always needed this invisible force to protect them against the Israeli oppressors, an invisible force that cannot be substituted even with the Lebanese army." - As Safir, Lebanon
[end]
Hezbollah official reaffirms alliance with Iran, Syria
mideastwire.com
Lebanese Hezbollah's Al Manar TV reported on November 27 that: "Hashim Safiy-al-Din, chairman of Hezbollah Executive Council, has reaffirmed the resistance's alliance with both Syria and Iran. He considered this alliance as a natural outcome and that it has achieved tremendous results in the region. Al-Sayyid Safiy-al-Din added that there is no force that can steer Lebanon to the US-Israeli axis as some dream.
"While commemorating the one-week anniversary of the martyrdom of Yusuf Barakat [Hezbollah fighter who was killed in Hezbollah's clashes with the Israeli forces on November 21] in his hometown Zibqin in southern Lebanon, Safiy-al-Din said that the problem in Lebanon is that some parties have not yet changed their previous views. He wondered that if Lebanon, which is bounded by the sea and the Zionist entity, does not ally with Syria, what other countries [are] left to ally with.
"[Safiy-al-Din - recording] The decision of the resistance is linked in the first place to confronting the aggression. The beginning of resistance in the first place is linked to the presence of the aggression. As long as the aggression, occupation, threat and injustice are present, the resistance will continue its mission in the upcoming days, months and years. At this critical and intricate political period our region and country are going through, nobody should think that Lebanon changed its political position irrevocably or even think that they should think of other calculations. This has never taken place and it will never take place." - Al Manar, Lebanon
[end]
26 Comments:
Dear All,
The truth is that Hariri killed himself. He arranged for the bomb to be placed in a car with an unsuspecting driver who was asked to follow the same route Hariri was planning to take.
He killed himself because he hated Lahoud and the Syrian regime and couldn’t stand it any longer. He told me personally when I had a brief meeting with him two weeks before his suicide. I had tried to stop him by saying that no one hated him, but to no avail. This happened just after I had finished an important meeting with Condoleezza Rice and Jack Straw about the Hizbullah situation in Lebanon. I phoned Chirac and told him about Hariri’s plan but I couldn’t understand his reply since I didn’t speak French.
On the day of the murder (I mean suicide) Sa’d Hariri phoned me and asked me to meet him. He also asked me to place a bag over my head during the meeting. This is what everyone asks me to do when we meet!! Our initial meeting was at Starbucks Coffee shop, he ordered a Café Latte and I ordered water. He told me that he was worried that people would think it was him who killed his father. He asked me if anyone else could be blamed for the killing, as I started to speak, he interrupted me and said: “Hey, you are Syrian, can we blame the Syrians?” I did actually have a grudge against Syrians, since they never appreciated my hair styling techniques which I practiced on Syrian army personnel. You know the style: basically cool like mine. Anyhoo, I said OK let’s blame it on the Syrians, can I have a new car like a Nissan Micra or Yaris so I have something to show for my efforts? Hariri Jr. nodded.
When I got home that evening Asef Shawkat and Maher Assad phoned me on Skype, they said that they wanted to have Hariri killed, and asked if I could help by chopping his head off when he came to my Salon for a haircut next. It was too late by then; I told them that he’s already dead. They didn’t believe me at first but then they heard the news when I told them to switch their television on!
The moment Mehlis arrived in Beirut, he phoned me using a prepaid mobile phone number, and asked if I could be the key witness to this. However, he insisted that I have a bag on my head again! I went to see Detlev and I told him that Asef and Maher did it! The meeting lasted 2 minutes and he wrote down what I said.
My Nissan was giving me problems, the ABS broke and my near-side rear indicator stopped working. I knew I was being conned into this. The conspiracy was beginning to unfold. It was hard to drive around Beirut with a bag over my head. One of the conditions Hariri Jr. placed on the deal! I wanted fame, but no. Hariri wants it all for himself. I phoned several TV stations in Beirut asking whether they would accept interviewing me without a bag over my head, but again no.
A Syrian friend told me that I should try Syrian television, since they interview anyone, even without bags. So I called them, and yes, they immediately agreed and said that I could wear what I like and can even smoke on air. What about cars, do you provide cars? They said that they would initially provide me with a car key for 3 months to get acquainted then a car for real after that provided I managed to stay alive that long! I jumped at the chance. Fame and fortune at last. When I got to the Lebanese-Syrian border, I simply just walked through. It was so easy; no one asked me any questions. No wonder America has problems with Syrian-Iraqi border control. Anyone can cross borders without any questions asked, now this is freedom. My mother told me that this is all lies, and that they make the lives of people absolute hell at border & customs control unless you were carrying a Ramak bag, but I think she’s lying to show Syria up. I have seen that she has a new TV/Recordable DVD set, the same one as Detlev Mehlis had in his office in Beirut. Shame on you mother!
Now, I couldn’t be happier, I am a hero of my nation. 18 Million people love me (and believe me :;) Didn’t realize my fellow Syrians were that simple. But, it pays to live in Beirut for so long, this is why I look more handsome and have youth and energy. Poor Syrians they are so gullible.
I really enjoyed the press conference (with no bag) two days ago, and I am looking forward to driving my new car in Damascus.
Hariri Jr. phoned me this morning and offered to make me the news presenter of the Mustakbal TV station, but I refused. I am in heaven, surrounded by Syrian mukhabarat, I feel free and safe. The coffee here is better, and because people in Syria are old and less energetic I feel like I am a born-again superman.
I am planning on opening a hair styling salon in Damascus soon. If you come for a hair cut, don't be alarmed by the masked men at the door, or the guy with an AK47 who washes your hair. They are really nice people and they are just there to make you feel comfortable and offer you coffee.
Husam T Husam
Husam, I love your comment!
Husam, you have WWWAAAYYY to much time on your hand
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
Husam you liar, you know that a Zulu-Turkmen alliance is responsible for this crime
Support the bid for Damascus to be listed on craigslist.net. Go tell them why it's important to you that Damascus is represented on craigslist.
My Dear Vox, Hariri was a Zulu-Turkmen! I met up with their leader. Did I forget to mention? I am sorry for not providing this important information.
All the best.
Husam T Husam.
''The surest path to the top for a would-be dictator is to assure people that their fate is being determined by strangers, by people who are, in some fundamental way, unlike themselves. Several years ago, Riccardo Orizio, an Italian journalist, began to track down former dictators who are now living in disgrace and largely forgotten, and to interview them. The result, “Talk of the Devil: Encounters with Seven Dictators” (Walker; $22), is fascinating. Orizio’s subjects are not just ordinary, run-of-the-mill ex-dictators. They are: Idi Amin, of Uganda, now enjoying life as a guest of the Saudis; Jean-Bédel Bokassa, of the Central African Republic, known to the people of that country as the Ogre of Berengo; Wojciech Jaruzelski, the Soviets’ Polish puppet; Nexhmije Hoxha, who (with, until his death, her husband, Enver) ruled Albania for nearly fifty years; Jean-Claude (Baby Doc) Duvalier, who got run out of Haiti in 1986; Mengitsu Haile Mariam, the Marxist-Leninist dictator of Ethiopia; and Mira Markovic, the wife of Slobodan Milosevic, who is currently on trial in The Hague for crimes against humanity. (Manuel Noriega, from his Florida prison cell, politely declined a meeting, on the ground, as he put it in a letter to Orizio, that he was by no means yet in the category of forgotten dictators. “God,” he explained, “has not yet written the last word on manuel a. noriega!”)
Each ex-dictator is mad in his own way, but what almost all of them insist on, in their interviews with Orizio, is that everything they did—the torture, the starvation, the looting of the nation’s wealth, the murder of political opponents—was for the good of their country. The alternatives were chaos, colonization, or slaughter. These men and women were, in their own minds, patriots. They validate John Adams’s old warning that “power always thinks it has a great soul.” The degree of cognitive dissonance involved in being a person who oppresses people out of love for them is summed up in a poster that Baby Doc Duvalier had put up in Haiti. It read, “I should like to stand before the tribunal of history as the person who irreversibly founded democracy in Haiti.” And it was signed “Jean-Claude Duvalier, president-for-life.”
When Orizio asks his dictators about their crimes and excesses—Bokassa and Amin have both been accused of cannibalism—they mostly pass the stories off as the lies of their enemies, but when they do offer an explanation it tends to boil down to what the evil duke says in James Thurber’s “The Thirteen Clocks”: “We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked.” Personal excesses are not the point. The point is that order and autonomy were preserved. Most of them say to Orizio what Saddam Hussein is no doubt saying to whatever loyal henchmen may be remaining to him: Look at my country now! The henchmen are nodding solemnly in agreement. Is it because they agree or because they are afraid not to agree? Possibly they no longer know the difference.''
Reprinted from The New Yorker's Web site on July 21, 2003.
http://www.wehaitians.com/the%20devil%20disciples.html
Interesting stuff. You can justify anything in the name of preserving law and order.
Husam T Husam, you just made my day.
Thank you!
:-)
All of you Hariri-parasites, laugh and make fun of Syria now. Very soon the tables will turn and the truth will be revealed.
"Sheikh" Saad (you know, the sex-addicted crackhead), his game is unraveling, and it turns out he and I-support-the-highest-bidder Jumblatt are no match for the Syrian mukhabarat who are very old hands at these dirty games.
Latest Developments:
Le Figaro is reporting that the Hariris may indeed have had a role in pushing Siddiq's false witness. Giving credence to Hussam's story.
Meanwhile, the lawyer for Luay Sa'aa has said that, indeed, his client has met with 3 CIA agents who tried to get him to bring false witness against Syria (Cham-press.net)
Finally, Mehlis has said that he's gonna run away, err, leave the investigation due to certain commitments back home. Yeah, after such a humiliating defeat, and after you are shown to be either an idiot or a biased agent, I would step down too.
/It's amusing that Hussam's testimony against the generals resulted in Mehlis accusing them directly, yet now that he accuses a lot of Lebanese elements, Mehlis does nothing.
//flame on...
It's amusing how Damascene Blood thinks that the Husam affair affected the credibility of the inquiry. Fortunately the opinion of people like you don't matter because you live in a dictatorship (and you seem to be happy about it). The important thing is that for international policymakers it didn't make any difference. Bashar looks even more guilty now.
"you know, the sex-addicted crackhead"
Sexual insults are rarely a sign of confidence or blossoming.
Vox
your idiotic comments notwithstanding, if you think the US is a dictatorship, then that's your problem, because that's where I live.
Of course the Hussam affair affected the credibility of the 'inquiry'. By Mehlis' admission, he was one of the main witnesses and was the 'Masked Witness' who accused the Lebanese generals. I think if your main witness retracts his testimony then you are in deep doo-doo, but don't let logic or reality affect your hateful judgement.
As for Saad being a crackhead and sleeping with every prostitute in Paris, that's not my own info; amongst people who are close to Saad (i.e. Wlaad Mas'ooleen) he is known to be very 'Saaye3' and worse. I don't care what you think of this, I trust my sources, and people who are acquainted with him even from a distance know this too.
Quoting Ammar Abdul Hamid, a great Syrian patriot (I don't see a lot of them on this blog)
"Moreover, approaching this crisis from a strictly legalistic angle misses the point. The UN Security Council is not a court of law. It is a political body par excellence. Circumstantial evidence often suffices for its members to adopt very stern resolutions, if the political will is there. And in the case of Syria, it is."
Ain't that the truth !
http://amarji.blogspot.com/2005/11/habitual-feet-shooters.html
Yeah, some justice that is, the one at the Security Council.
In Islam, and I know that Vox and many here are either Christian or Godless Atheists, agreeing to something makes you a partner in it.
If and when the 'just' Security Council 'feels' that it should indict Syria based on circumstancial evidence, and when the 'smart' sanctions take effect, and when millions of Syrians starve and become extremists, remember that you guys supported this crime and were partners in it, while some of you foolishly thought that this was going to collapse the regime, which it obviously didn't.
Damascene I would be cautious before speaking too soon that Mehlis' game is unraveling. Mehlis may not have revealed his full hand, he could still have an ace up his sleeve.
And much rests on the testimony in Vienna of the Syrian officials. It is concievable one of them could turn on Syria. And the final Mehlis Report may still be delayed further. So there is much to considered still, even if the credibility of the interim Mehlis Report has been severely undercut.
And we must prepare ourselves for the distinct possibility of Mehlis coming up with no evidence proving Syria was behind the murder--yet the UN Security Council just not caring and supporting sanctions anyway. You would think people would learn from history--like what happened in Iraq--but it doesn't look that way.
You see as Vox Populi will probaly tell u, he 'knows' Syria did it--all the Lebanese bloggers 'know' Syria did it. The Neo-cons in the US also 'know'. Who are we to suggest otherwise--it seems they think they are infallible. Hussam's previous testimony must be the correct version because it supports their conclusion!! They may not care if there is no evidence--their thinking may be that the end justifies the means--Bashar Asssad is a thug and must be taken out no matter what. This is the world we live in--the powerful create the rules and write history.
Just like it has been a harsh lesson on the Iraqi people, I fear the Syrian people may get a taste of the realities of power politics today.
And speaking of propaganda spin and writing history--It looks like the Bush admin is back to its old ways of propaganda. This time they have "information operations" troops (just call them propaganda troops come on!) in Iraq that are paying Iraqi newspapers to print favorable stories of America--without saying the US Gov is footing the bill. So these stories appear as if some Iraqi wrote it all the while actual propaganda soldiers write the stories which are then translated and given out.
The thing that scares is me who knows what else they are doing that has not yet been uncovered.
Here is the LA times report:
U.S. Military Covertly Pays to Run Stories in Iraqi Press
EngChange
Yeah, I completely agree with you. This is a power play, and the first round went to the Neocons and their friends, this round the Syrians hit back. It seems the Hariri murder is no longer the issue, but the issue now is getting a 'Syria didn't cooperate' verdict in the (in)Security Council.
People like Vox and his ilk hate the Syrian people at heart because what they are supporting leads directly to the destruction of Syria and its people. Oh well, as much as I dislike the Assad regime, I don't think change coming from the Neocons can be good.
As you said, people have short memories and they have already forgotten the Iraqi lesson.
Yea but who are we to talk? Because we want our country and family and friends to live in a stable country--we are labeled as baathist (funny since we both live in the US and I have never been in a baathist taught class or event)
We are labeled as non-patriots because we actually look ahead to what would happen if the Assad regime fell--and we don't like taking that kind of huge risk. I wonder if these people consider Ahmad Chalabi to be an iraqi patriot or George Bush to be a friend of middle east.
I am sorry but I will take my chances with change from within the regime.
YOU, Damascene Blood, are the GREATEST. You are one of those syrians in usa, who hides th say where you are from. And you are right to do so. For the thugs, you are defending here, YOU are less than the dirt under their shoes.
What syrians did in Lebanon is criminal, this will be written in the books of history.
Again: I am ashamed to be a syrian.
My apologises to you, Mister Vox Populi.
You should come over to Paris, Damascene Blood, enjoy the life and its treasures here. Paris is the city of love, yes. Not only Hariri enjoys, you should try it also, so you can be more relaxed.
You know what is prostitution? Forced marriages in arab countries, where it is also norm even to rape the own wife.
You got already what you deserve, Damascene, I noticed your frustration and aggression. Calm down, you live in the freest and best country on earth, use your brain and your chance.
Vive la France!!!
Bp,
If you are ashamed to be syrian then what the heck areyou doing in this forum , I told you and others like you please Go TO ISRAELCOMMENT.COM
They would welcome someone like you with open arms.
This post has been removed by a blog administrator.
BP you know I still am curious to your take on the riots in France--you never did respond to my questions here:
Fighter Infiltration from Syria into Iraq" by Abdullah Ta'i
"At Thursday, November 17, 2005, EngineeringChange said...
BP
I am curious about your experience in France and am wondering if you can shed some light...."
Again: I am PROUD to be a Syrian and proud to be American--it seems in the midst of your delirious love of Paris you have also turned your back on Syria.
And as a proud Syrian, I still am able to simultaneously condemn Syrian excesses in Lebanon or Baath Party excesses. But I do not turn my back on Syria.
And here is a interesting article I read on conditions in the US vs conditions in France:
Metro Arabs don't feel France's alienation, discrimination here
>Shame
I am convinced that one day you will come to the conclusion, that you have to ask Israel for help out of the syrian disaster.
Anyways, Israelis live good within their democracy. Jealous?
Just imagine.....Syria as the new star in the us flag.....you must not lie, not steal, you can elect the leader you want or yourself run for office, all this in good wealth and sourrounded by a social network and healthy society. Are you honest if you refuse this?
But, yes, just sit sipping your tea between your friends and let your eternal king think and decide for you and your destiny. He knows best what you deserve.
Best for you shame
BP
> EngineeringChange
sorry, Sir, I refuse to discuss with you, it would be waste of time. What about SHAME,E27????? The same level.
BP
By the way, I am a respected citizen in France and have to thank the society here. And yes, I am with our interior minister and would vote for deportation. We are more than tired here in the west being bothered by mentaly retarded muslims. Like it or not, I dont care.
Of course, if I watch your comments and your style here in the blog, I feel more than proud that God helped me to put the right decision.
Vive la France
BP
In case this is censored in syria read here:
Give Detlev Mehlis six more months
By Michael Young
Daily Star staff
Thursday, December 01, 2005
The bane of high tragedy is that it frequently descends into low comedy. On Monday, viewers of Syrian television were treated to the Baathist equivalent of "Animal House," as one Houssam Taher Houssam, an alleged Syrian intelligence agent, claimed he had been alternatively beaten by Lebanese security forces and offered mouth-watering bribes by the Hariri camp to falsely implicate Syria in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
One might, of course, pick through the howling improbabilities and contradictions in Houssam's testimony. Or mention that his naming of several Lebanese journalists - Fares Khashan, Jubran Tueni and May Chidiac - was just a glancing threat tossed in their direction (and, as one observer astutely put it, embedded confirmation that Syria had something to do with Chidiac's assassination attempt.) But the reality lies elsewhere: Whatever their futility when it comes to understanding the things of the world, Syria's Baathists can be cunning. The Houssam spectacle was not designed to persuade anyone in Washington, Paris or Beirut, but to discredit the report of United Nations investigator Detlev Mehlis - who supposedly based some of the more damaging findings in his interim report on Houssam's statements - and to bolster the Assad regime's hold domestically, in the event of a confrontation with the international community.
Depending on whom you listen to, Mehlis' decision to talk to Syrian witnesses in Vienna was either a victory for Syria or a humiliating climb-down. In Damascus, the mood leaned toward the former; the international media interpreted it as the latter. The interview agreement was too preliminary to be either. Mehlis did not want his investigation to be overtaken by politics through a move to sanctions; he also understood it was not advisable to be seen as inflexible with Damascus. That's why his concession was tactical - a wedge he can now use to ask for more, building on his certifiable achievement in forcing Assad to accept that security officials be interviewed outside Syrian territory, Mehlis' demand all along.
As the December 15 deadline for the final UN report nears, it is increasingly apparent that two paths will remain open by then: that of imposing sanctions against Syria or of extending the Mehlis investigation. It is doubtful the Syrians will allow any steps that might help crack the case wide open before the cutoff date, particularly when it comes to the interrogations of Assef Shawkat, Bashar Assad's brother-in-law, or the president's brother Maher.
It is equally unlikely the UN Security Council would prefer moving to the imposition of sanctions now if there is evidence that Mehlis is making progress. Russia and China are hesitant to punish Syria just yet, while the United States and France, as well as the United Kingdom, realize that the truth about Hariri's killing remains a far more powerful battering ram against the Syrian regime than a possibly divisive sanctions debate. It's an open secret that even if sanctions are agreed, these would only strengthen the Assads' hold on power for a time.
It is conceivable that Mehlis might breach the Syrian wall of silence before December 15. According to Al-Hayat, Mehlis told Syria's legal representative that he already has enough evidence to arrest the former intelligence chief in Lebanon, Rustom Ghazaleh, and his deputy in Beirut, Jameh Jameh. Facing the prospect of being made scapegoats, Ghazaleh and Jameh might panic and spill the beans. However, don't wager much on this happening. Two weeks is still an almost impossible timeframe for Mehlis to wrap up his inquiry.
That's why it is necessary for the UN investigator to be allowed to pursue his efforts after the deadline. In Mehlis' October report, he implied that six months were not enough to reach definitive conclusions. He called for a "sustained effort on the part of the international community to establish an assistance and cooperation platform together with the Lebanese authorities in the field of security and justice ..." A new Security Council resolution providing, let's say, a six-month extension for the Mehlis team would partly satisfy this and compel the Syrians to rethink their strategy, which is to push for a face-off with the UN sooner rather than later.
There are obvious dangers. No one, least of all UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, wants to be locked in an open-ended investigation that might polarize the international community and lead to insinuations from Syria's friends that Mehlis is being given more time to strengthen a weak case. Some in the Bush administration may wonder whether a delay won't unpleasantly echo what occurred in Iraq in 2003 with the arms inspectors, where many leaders saw an indefinite UN-mandated inspection process as a means to avoid taking more decisive action.
If so, the analogy is a poor one. No one in Washington is contemplating all-out war against Syria, and the Security Council is much more united in backing Mehlis than it ever was on ousting Saddam Hussein. As for any assertion that the German prosecutor has a weak case, that will be determined when he next issues his report. Whatever Mehlis says, and it will be more than last time, he must articulate specific complaints against Syria, particularly its stalling tactics. Any new UN resolution lengthening his mandate would have to spell out much more clearly what is expected of Damascus, so that Assad cannot stretch out the process indefinitely.
Six more months would make Russia and China more amenable to sanctions in the event Syria repeatedly fails to meet or contests Mehlis' conditions. This might also isolate Assad further in the Arab world, where it is already difficult enough to cover for the Syrian president's transparent bad faith in cooperating with the UN. At the end of the day, grotesque episodes like the Houssam news conference show the Syrians have much to hide. It may be comical, but the last laugh will probably be on them.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home