The Khaddam Affaire as seen from Paris

This view of the Khaddam affaire as seen from Paris was posted by Nicholas in the comment section. I am posting it here, because it is interesting and gives us yet another perspective on the present predicament in Syria. Nicholas believes the French are in no position and have little inclination to push the Syria issue to a showdown. He suggests following the oil.

After a good week's vacation, people in Paris are back to town and back to work. The first question I was asked at the office this morning was not how was your break? Bur rather: “What is going on with your guys?” Even a Lebanese colleague was outraged at Khaddam and said that he and all his friends (Lebanese) believe he has been paid to do this. I didn’t get a chance to chat more but I think I’m going to hear some interesting opinions over here all day.

The newspapers and TV new bulletins here in Paris have put the Khaddam story front page over the weekend, again with translations of the Khaddam script that could least be described as “inaccurate” or only present half the sentence; just like the la takraboo el salat then period phrase. On the way to the office, radio news announced that the UN commission wants to interrogate Bashar Assad (front news). Yet, on this Monday morning things were different. Le Figaro (right wing leaning and close to the Chirac clan) included 5 articles on the subjects; this is a record quantity on Syria and all in the same issue. The first on the UN wanting to interrogate Bashar Assad, Farouk Shar’a and Khaddam. He second on the reactions in Lebanon (mostly based on article in An-Nahar). The third a description of Khaddam.

Then comes the interesting part: article 4 and 5. One is entitled: the Hidden Message of Abdel Halim Khaddam and this discusses the hypothesis of Khaddam presenting himself as potential candidate for the post-Bashar Assad era. The last, is a 2 sentence declaration by the Quai d’Orsay (French Ministry of Foreign Affairs) declaring that it is not in contact with Khaddam who is in Paris for private reasons (bad translation of à “titre privé”). So is France keeping its options open (article 4) or assuring Bashar Assad that all is not over yet (article 5)?

In Champress this morning, an article also noted that Bashar Assad is going to go on a tour of capitals this year and that efforts are underway to organize a reconciliatory meeting with Chirac in Paris. (as far as I am concerned Champress is far from being your ultimate undisputable source of information). During the vacation, I met a friend who is in the oil business and he confirmed that a French oil company (not Total – this should be enough of a hint) is looking seriously into applying for a couple of the oil licenses that are to be put to tender in the first quarter of 2006. This company is highly politicized (yes, even more than Total) and would not have decided to go into such venture without some green light from “up there”. Earlier, I noted that Total has been in talks with the Syrian authorities about a refinery construction, this has been sited again from two different sources: Les Echos (the French version of the Financial Times) and from Zawya.com (a mideast business information site-serious and reliable news source). So it looks like its pretty serious.

Somewhere in the thread above someone noted that in the eyes of the West Syria is already guilty [of the Harriri murder] regardless what happens. This statement is very true and I think it would be wisest if the Syrians dealt with things based on this above assumption. Even the Lebanese over here, who have strong influence on events in Beirut as well as Foreign policy spheres in Paris, are somehow getting bored with this story and would like to move on; this point has been mentioned to me from different people with different political tendencies (pro- and against-Syria but all Lebanese). One of these friend suggested the following: “Let them stick it over Ghazali’s back and get over the entire thing. Even if not guilty himself, let this be the price to pay for his other misgivings. The Khaddam declaration against him can be used. Bashar can admit having been harsh with Harriri in the presence of Ghazali but he regrets it and that’s why he talked to Khaddam about it. Ghazali wanted to please his master so he did the assassination thinking this would win him favors with Bashar. Khaddam noted that Bashar is not really fond of Ghazali and knows that he is a “thief” (laugh laugh). Given the international mood, everyone would turn the page and move on to something else.” This fits neatly; notably when one notices the incredible US silence.

The French seem to have got this message and this would explain the oil deals on talk now and Champress’ story of a Chirac-Assad meeting in 2006. Chirac is in his last year as president (and very weakened), he is doing all he can to smooth the transition of the presidency (not to his son) but to the current Prime Minister (who is the only person willing to grant Chirac immunity from persecution for corruption). Cleaning up the foreign affairs file would be a major priority during the upcoming political battle. It is also worth noting that the current Foreign Minister is puppet/joke (no-one takes him seriously – not even in the EU).
Sorry to cut the discussion thread over whether Khaddam is fit or not to rule, but maybe the above thought from Paris could help the debate.

Apologies about pasting the 2 articles of Le Figaro below, but last I tried to include links, it did not work. Thank you all for your understanding.

Le message caché d'Abdel Halim Khaddam
En accusant un régime qu'il a toujours servi, l'ancien vice-président syrien cherche peut-être à se placer dans la course au pouvoir.
Pierre Prier
[02 janvier 2006]

ABDEL Halim Khaddam s'est-il placé, de Paris, dans la course au pouvoir pour l'après-Bachar ? Le contenu de l'entretien choisi pour le donner, et jusqu'au média qui le délivre semblent indiquer un positionnement politique de l'ancien vice-président, plus qu'une intervention décisive dans le dossier Hariri lui-même.
L'interview de Khaddam n'apporte en effet aucun élément concret à l'enquête de la commission de l'ONU sur l'assassinat de l'ancien premier ministre libanais. Abdel Halim Khaddam exprime surtout sa conviction personnelle que le sommet du pouvoir – il se garde bien de nommer le président Bachar el-Assad – est responsable du meurtre de Hariri.

Menaces directes contre Hariri
Detlev Melhis a lui aussi exprimé cette certitude avant de se faire remplacer le 15 décembre dernier. Mais il n'a pu en apporter la preuve, empêchant ainsi le Conseil de sécurité de voter des sanctions contre Damas. Dans l'un des passages les plus incriminants de son entretien, Khaddam confirme le récit contenu dans le premier rapport Mehlis : convoquant Hariri à Damas, Bachar el-Assad l'aurait très directement menacé.

Le vice-président cite trois sources, dont deux morts : Hariri lui-même et le ministre de l'Intérieur Ghazi Kanaan, «suicidé» en octobre dernier. La troisième source est le président Bachar. Un apport qui n'aidera en rien le successeur de Detlev Mehlis, sauf si Abdel Halim Khaddam a des éléments vraiment concrets à lui communiquer dans le cadre d'un interrogatoire.

Quant au moment choisi, on peut se demander pourquoi le vice-président, âgé de 73 ans et vieux compagnon de route de Hafez el-Assad, le père, a attendu trente-cinq ans pour dénoncer le régime syrien. Quand il démissionne du parti Baas en juin, Khaddam paraît surtout mû par le constat de sa marginalisation dans les instances du parti. L'ex-vice-président explique qu'il est parti pour protester contre l'absence de réformes politiques.

Une vue qui surprendra les lecteurs d'une interview récente donnée à la presse officielle, où il accusait les partisans du multipartisme de «servir les plans de l'étranger et d'Israël». Sur le plan politique, Khaddam n'a jamais fait figure de réformateur. Mais l'ancien dirigeant était considéré comme «souple» sur la question libanaise. Il entretenait d'ailleurs des liens d'amitié avec Rafic Hariri et fut le seul officiel syrien à assister à ses obsèques.

Comme Hariri, Khaddam était sunnite, et ce n'est pas un détail. Le vice-président démissionnaire n'appartenait pas à la minorité alaouite, dont est issu le clan Bachar, mais à l'écrasante majorité sunnite, au moins 70% des Syriens. En ces temps de repli sur l'identité confessionnelle, tout sunnite est plus ou moins en odeur de méfiance. L'amitié avec Rafic Hariri, qui pouvait servir de modèle à toute une bourgeoisie sunnite syrienne, ne donnait pas de bons points dans un CV. Surtout quand le pouvoir soupçonne l'Occident, les pays arabes sunnites et même certains membres des cercles dirigeants d'être à la recherche d'un sunnite présentable pour conduire le pays.

Intentions qui restent à décoder
On peut comprendre que Khaddam ait attendu de s'être installé à Paris pour donner son interview. Il l'a confié à al-Arabiya, chaîne à capitaux saoudiens proche de la famille royale, dont Rafic Hariri était l'ami. Un message de plus dans le message. Mais les intentions d'Abdel Halim Khaddam restent encore à décoder. Surtout dans la mesure où le régime de Damas, qui a gagné du temps et des alliés à l'ONU, est sorti consolidé, au moins pour un temps, de son dernier bras de fer avec l'ONU.
[end]

Khaddam est à Paris à titre privé
[02 janvier 2006]
Le ministère français des Affaires étrangères n'a aucun contact avec l'ancien vice-président syrien, Abdel Halim Khaddam, qui séjourne à titre privé à Paris, a assuré hier à l'AFP une source diplomatique. Le Quai d'Orsay s'en tient aux informations de la presse, selon lesquelles Abdel Halim Khaddam séjourne depuis juin à Paris.

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