Robert Kaplan Recants

Last week, Fukiyama condemned the US's Iraq policy as a failure, and criticized many of his erstwhile neocon colleagues for making it so. This week Robert Kaplan follows suit in an extraordinary article in which he criticizes "neoconservatives yearning to topple Bashar al-Assad." He also argues that "the last thing we should do is actively precipitate" the demise of Syria's dictatorial regime. He believes it will happen in time because of globalization. Thus the best policy is to help Asad globalize. This means Kaplan, in theory, favors Europe signing the Madrid process and the US dropping economic sanctions against Syria in order to drag it more quickly into the world economy which will in turn cause Syrians to become better educated and richer and more able to demand their rights. Quite a turn around for Kaplan.

This makes good sense. It is the policy that the US has insisted on following with China for the last two decades. It has had good results. It makes sense for Syria. Anyway, America's experiment in bringing good government to Iraq, suggests that there are many things worse than dictatorship.

We can't force democracy
By Robert D. Kaplan, Washington Post, March 2, 2006

The decision to remove [Saddam Hussein from power] was defensible, while not providential. The portrait of Iraq that has emerged since his fall reveals him as the Hobbesian nemesis who may have kept in check an even greater anarchy than the kind that obtained under his rule.

The lesson to take away is that where it involves other despotic regimes in the region -- none of which is nearly as despotic as Hussein's -- the last thing we should do is actively precipitate their demise. The more organically they evolve and dissolve, the less likely it is that blood will flow. That goes especially for Syria and Pakistan, both of which could be Muslim Yugoslavias in the making, with regionally based ethnic groups that have a history of dislike for each other. The neoconservative yearning to topple Bashar al-Assad, and the liberal one to undermine Pervez Musharraf, are equally adventurous.

"[B]efore the names of Just and Unjust can have place, there must be some coercive power," Thomas Hobbes wrote in "Leviathan." Without something or somebody to monopolize the use of force and decide right from wrong, no man is safe from another and there can be no freedom for anyone. Physical security remains the primary human freedom. And so the fact that a state is despotic does not necessarily make it immoral. That is the essential fact of the Middle East that those intent on enforcing democracy abroad forget.

Globalization and other dynamic forces will continue to rid the world of dictatorships. Political change is nothing we need to force upon people; it's something that will happen anyway. What we have to work toward -- for which peoples with historical experiences different from ours will be grateful -- is not democracy but normality. Stabilizing newly democratic regimes, and easing the development path of undemocratic ones, should be the goal for our military and diplomatic establishments. The more cautious we are in a world already in the throes of tumultuous upheaval, the more we'll achieve. [complete article]

The US Institute of Peace has published a summary of its latest seminar on Syria meeting here. "Syria and Political Change II " is written up by Scott Lasensky and Mona Yacoubian.

The Stimson Institute has posted their summary of the "Roundtable on Syria with David Ignatius and Joshua Landis."

Massoud Derhally has an very interesting interview with Hamadeh, Jumblatt's right hand man, which sums up Lebanon's dilemma well.

"Back from the dead"
Massoud A. Derhally
Arabian Business
Published: March 5, 2006

This presents a conundrum for Hamadeh and the present government. But they see a resolution to the current impasse. "We think things can be unblocked by two elements; one is the inquiry and the international court and this could get Lahoud and break the bottleneck.

"The second thing is the unnatural alliance between Aoun and Hezbollah, which with the final analysis and time, will appear to the Christian constituency as unacceptable.

"The Christians will not allow anyone, even Aoun, to drive them back to the Syrian orbit or Iranian hegemony. We should, in the next few months, probably see major changes," predicts Hamadeh.

Hamadeh emphasises the political system in the country is one of consensus and not one of majority. "Lebanon is an alliance of minorities. However big a community is, it is still a minority next to the other minorities united. But a consensus system does not mean you don't have a system of checks and balances made and implemented," says Hamadeh. "It doesn't mean that you can block a government decision simply because it doesn't please Washington, Tehran or Damascus. There should be a margin of independence expressed in a way the system is consecrated by the constitution."

Activists slam closure of human rights centre

DAMASCUS, 5 March (IRIN) - Activists have slammed a government decision to close the country's first human rights centre, which opened in mid-February with support from the European Union (EU).

"This is a sign to the EU and other countries that it's hopeless to form civil
society here and promote change," said centre director and prominent human
rights lawyer Anwar Bunni, who confirmed that the centre was shut down two days
ago.

According to the government, the Damascus-based centre, which
offered legal advice, counselling and training on human rights issues, was
closed because it had not received official permission to operate. No one was
available for comment on the issue on Sunday.

Bunni described the centre
as a "red line" that civil society was unable to cross. "I remain hopeful that
the decision will be reversed and we will continue our struggle," he said. "We
hope the EU will continue to support us."

The opening of the centre on
23 February had been considered a major breakthrough on the local human rights
front. At the time, the head of the EU delegation Frank Hesske to Syria said it
was aimed at building "a stronger Syria".

Hesske said the centre – a
"one-stop shop" instituted to train lawyers, journalists and others on human
rights issues – was intended "to ensure that internationally adopted human
rights laws are adhered to."

The centre was part of a two-year project
by the Belgium-based Institute for International Assistance and Solidarity, with
93,000 Euros (US $111,000) of funding provided by the EU.

Although many
observers say that rights activists are able to work more freely now than in
previous years, Damascus continues to come in for heavy criticism by
international human rights organisations.

In 2005, Amnesty International
reported that hundreds of people had been arrested in Syria for political
reasons, with many held incommunicado and allegedly tortured or mistreated.
Bunni said that some 1,500 political detainees were still languishing in Syrian
jails.

According to Bassam Ishak, a spokesman for the Syrian Human
Rights Organisation, the closure of the centre represented a "step back for the
civil society movement in Syria". "We hope the government and the EU will reach
an agreement and we hope the centre will reopen," Ishak said.