What is at Stake in Lebanon's National Conference?

The national conference of sectarian leaders in Lebanon, which has been meeting all week in an attempt to fix Lebanon, broken off their talks until Monday.

Walid Jumblatt, who rejects the basic premise of the deal being hammered out, quit the meeting after its first day to head for Washington. He believes that only Washington can help Lebanon succeed in ousting President Lahoud and disarming Hizbullah, the two requirements for destroying Syrian influence in Lebanon. He wanted nothing to do with the national dialogue.

Why? He explained that "the pro-Syrian Amal-Hizbullah coalition had hoped to strike a deal with the anti-Syrian [Hariri led] coalition that would allow Hizbullah to keep its arms in return for letting them name the next president." Jumblatt further said the dialogue had reached a deadlock because participants disagreed over the Shebaa Farms issue and Hizbullah's disarmament. Jumblatt is not content to get rid of Lahoud at the price of continuing Hizbullah's immunity.

The Daily Star's Nada Bakri and Nafez Qawas have a good article on this. They explain how the impasse came about. Hizbullah is blaming the conference's failure on Jumblatt's perfidy, claiming he is an agent of the West and doesn't have Lebanon's best interests at heart. Jumblatt blames Hizbullah for being non-Lebanese. They are Syrian tools, according to his assessment, thus the National Dialogue that might have led to Hizbullah's legitimization, had to be sabotaged. He blames the failure of the National Dialogue on President Assad.

Hizbullah's Al-Manar television said the Druze leader's outspoken comments had been a factor in the conference's adjournment.

"It seems Jumblatt's comments have had an impact on the meeting, forcing a reaction from those who are opposed to him," the channel reported.

Political sources close to a participant in the dialogue told The Daily Star Jumblatt's comments were strongly opposed by Berri and Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Rumors emerged that an argument erupted when participants began discussing Hizbullah's arms and the Shebaa Farms, with Nasrallah and Berri questioning the point of such dialogue when Jumblatt was only trying to derail them.

Nasrallah then allegedly stormed out of the room. Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun and Hariri failed to convince Nasrallah to rejoin the talks, the rumors say. As a result, the talks were postponed.

MP Elie Skaff, representing Lebanon's Greek Catholic community and the first to leave the dialogue, hinted in comments to reporters that the dialogue was postponed over Jumblatt's remarks. "It has been adjourned until next week to allow time for additional contacts and await the return of MP Walid Jumblatt."

Democratic Gathering [Jumblatt's party] MP Wael Bou Faour told The Daily Star a Syrian decision to break off the dialogue has been passed.

"The pro-Syrian coalition does not have the authority to oust Lahoud, only President Assad can take this decision and he is not yet ready to give up on this card without receiving an outstanding price for it ... therefore they decided to end it," Bou Faour said, refusing to elaborate further.

Reports also emerged that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal will arrive in Beirut on the weekend to complete preparations for an Arab initiative that will sort out the situation. The initiative is expected to be announced during the Arab Summit to be held in Sudan this month.

Saad Hariri and members of his coalition, such as Geagea, are being much more upbeat about the National Dialogue, insisting that it is not over. Although, they refuse to repudiate Jumblatt -- which is clearly what Nasrallah wants them to do, they continue to court Hizbullah and Amal. Hariri and his allies can only be frightened by the Aoun-Shiite understanding. They want to nip it in the bud in order to assure that they get to name the next president of Lebanon. This means being nice to Hizbullah (and Syria), which is anathema to Jumblatt.

Since the National Pact was first hammered out in 1943, the Sunni-Christian alliance has been at the heart of Lebanon's political arrangement and stability. When it fell apart, the country burst into civil war. Rafiq Hariri was able to rebuild the alliance. The wild card is the emergence of the Shiites as a well-oiled political machine. They demand a change in the basic structure of Lebanon's National Pact. As the largest sect, they are no longer content to be treated as the dirt farmers and coffee boys to the country's Christian and Sunni za'ims.

The Aoun - Hizbullah entente, worked out some weeks ago, suggests that a Christian - Shiite alliance could be formed that would effectively squeeze out the Sunnis. Saad Hariri and his group must fear this possibility. They want the Shiites to form a Sunni - Shiite alliance, which would squeeze out the Aoun's FPM. Hariri has promise the Christians that they will not be squeezed out if they back him, rather that their true strength and interests can only be realized by working with him. The Kornet Shahwan group, along with Geagea's Lebanese Front and the Patriarch have accepted this logic. Aoun has not.

Syria can live with either combination, so long as the pro-Syrian Shiites are ensconced in power and can protect Syrian interests in Lebanon. Syria's interests are two-fold. First, Lebanon must remain on the side of anti-Israeli resistance to ensure the return of the Golan. Second, Lebanon must not go headlong into the Western camp, allowing it to be used as a bridgehead in the region for over-turning or pressuring the Syrian regime. Syria will demand that whichever party gets to dance with the Shiites should soft-peddle the Hariri murder investigation, which remains France's and America's main hope for putting the screws to Syria.

This is why Jumblatt so adamantly opposes either combination. First the Druze would be cut out by either deal. Second, Asad, who hates Jumblatt more than any other Lebanese, would also be cut out along with his ally, Hizbullah. The Druze would prefer for the Shiites to be excluded from real power and to continue with the traditional Sunni - Christian combination. Because the Sunni - Christian combination is inherently weak - it represents little more than 50% of the population - the Druze community and Jumblatt would remain an important swing vote in government.

The US government is remaining very tight lipped. Reporters have asked for clarification, but both Rice and the President's spokespeople are being laconic. The only thing they will say is that US support for resolution 1559 is firm and well known, but insist that the National Dialogue is a Lebanese decision. The US doesn't want to interfere.

Meanwhile, the patriarch Sfeir is busy trying to patch up relations between pro and anti-Syrian Christian leaders. This may undercut Aoun's future support if more Christian leaders can be brought into the Future Movement, or at least, if divisions between them are healed.

»Chouf MP takes Lebanon's concerns to Washington: This is a pro-Jumblatt piece.