Bashar and Siniora Both Come Out Winners in the Post War Diplomacy

Syria seems to have maneuvered well in the post war wrangle over Lebanon. Lebanon's PM Siniora says foreign peace keeping troops will not police the border with Syria. Chirac seems to have gotten guarantees from Israel that it will stop bombing Lebanon. He also says that on 6,000 and not 15,000 foreign troops are needed to police Lebanon. With no policing of the Syrian border and fewer foreign troops in Lebanon, Syria has diminished the likelihood that it will be challenged by Washington in the UN or Israel in the air.

Siniora has wisely decided that foreigners should not decide Lebanon's future and that only some form of political deal between the March 14 crowd and Hizbullah will pave a way out of the terrible situation Lebanon finds itself in as the man in the middle. He has effectively elbowed both Syria and Israel aside as much as he can in order to leave himself room to maneuver. He has done about as much as he can to preserve Lebanese sovereignty by playing all sides off against the other in Lebanon's interest.

US Blasts Syria on Lebanon Peacekeeping By David Gollust, 24 August 2006

The United States Thursday welcomed apparent progress in Europe toward fielding an upgraded U.N. peacekeeping force for Lebanon. At the same time, the State Department condemned as "preposterous" Syria's stand that the U.N. force should not be allowed to patrol its border with Lebanon.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni of Israel told her Italian counterpart, Massimo D'Alema, yesterday that Israel will not end its current military blockade of Lebanon until an effective weapons embargo against Hezbollah is in place, Ha'aretz reported.

Syria has said it will oppose patrols of foreign troops to prevent arms smuggling along its border with Lebanon. President Assad said earlier this week that he would consider any deployment of foreign troops along the border "an act of aggression."

Prime Minister Siniora yesterday reiterated his unwillingness to confront Damascus. A diplomat familiar with the meeting between Mr. Siniora and U.N. representatives Vijay Nambiar and Terje Roed-Larsen earlier this week told The New York Sun that Mr. Siniora refrained from asking that foreign troops patrol the Syrian border.

"We want amiable relations with Syria and we are concerned about the border matter to prevent any infiltration into Lebanon," Mr. Siniora told France's TV5 yesterday. "We have deployed the Lebanese army and we have no intention of showing any animosity toward Syria."

Mr. Siniora said the force will not disarm Hezbollah. "It's clear that the Lebanese army will carry out this mission," he told an Italian newspaper, La Repubblica." The multinational force is not supposed to do that and should not bother itself with it. Hezbollah is a political party represented in the government and it agreed to the seven-point plan presented to the U.N. by the Lebanese government."

French President Jacques Chirac, whose diplomats helped draft the August 11 Security Council resolution that authorized up to 15,000 peacekeepers to deploy in Lebanon, said he was unsure how many troops were needed but that 15,000 was too many.

The number was "completely excessive", Chirac told a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Paris.

"It doesn't really make sense. So what is the right number, 4,000, 5,000 or 6,000? I don't know," he said.

Israel:
More than 60 pct of Israelis want Olmert to quit: poll

An excellent summary of the wrangle going on in Israel over whether or not to engage Syria appears in the Jewish News: Calls for Talks With Syria Increase in U.S., Israel Olmert Says Not Now, Bush Also Seen as Being Opposed. The conclusion is that Israel will have to push for talks over US objections if it wants to plum the possibilities of peace with Syria, because Washington wants war. Here is the conclusion of the article.

“There is so much static that it would make more sense for Israel to find its own lines into the Syrians,” said Edward Walker, who has served as the American ambassador to both Israel and Egypt.

Theodore Kattouf, a former American ambassador to Syria, said the only way the United States would ever overcome its resistance is if Israel pushed hard. “Without the Israelis urging it, it’s not going to happen,” Kattouf said.

The tone in Israel has not been about moving forward, but rather on evaluating the military failures in Lebanon, said David Makovsky, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has been in Israel for the past week.

“Right now Israel is traumatized and is looking inwards, not talking about diplomatic initiatives,” Makovsky said.

But Makovsky also said that given the lack of hope in negotiations with the Palestinians, the attention may return to Syria when the period of introspection is over.

“I don’t think anything is going to happen soon on Syria,” he said, “but I wouldn’t rule it out, in a way that was ruled out until very recently."

Iran

Russia blew American plans to sanction Iran out of the water by announcing that it will not support sanctions on Iran for the time being. Russia is finding a way back into the Middle East as the protector of the resurgent Shia bloc. It is a powerful combination at a time when the US can only pressure local states through multilateral action in the UN. From French pronouncements, it looks as if the Europeans are delighted to have Russia run interference for them with Washington. America's stand on Lebanon disgusted most European leaders. They don't trust the US to do the right thing with its leading role in the UN. France undercut US plans in Lebanon. Now Russia will take the heat for Karate chopping Washington on Iran.

Russia ruled out on Friday any discussion for now of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme, saying these had proved ineffective internationally in the past and there was still room for diplomacy.

"I know of no instances in world practice and previous experience in which sanctions have achieved their aim and proved effective," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said.

"Moreover, I believe that the question is not so serious at the moment for the U.N. Security Council or the group of six to consider any introduction of sanctions. Russia stands for further political and diplomatic efforts to settle the issue."

Gareth Porter, writing in Asia Times, deftly explains how Washington has undermined European efforts to engage Iran and to head off the confrontation that has now emerged between Iran and Washington over its nuclear plans. The Europeans wanted Washington to promise that it would not attack Iran in exchange for rolling back its nuclear program. Washington refused.

Rice denied on Fox News on May 21 that the US was being "asked about security guarantees", but that was deliberately misleading. As a European diplomat explained to Reuters on May 20, the only reason the Europeans had not used the term "security guarantees" in their draft was that "Washington is against giving Iran assurances that it will not be attacked".