Turkey loves Syria - Iraq Border - Jund al-Islam - Lebanon

America Vulnerable on Iraq Border

U.N. envoy Terje Roed-Larsen on Sunday delivered to President Assad a message reportedly containing a U.N. and U.S. joint ultimatum that Syria will be taken to severe international reckoning if another political assassination occurs in Lebanon.

So the Kassir whack was a freebie. France was not going to make a federal case over Kassir. One doesn't go to war over a journalist. The US got the Roed-Larsen visit from Annan, because Annan is a lamb duck, but Larsen is shooting blanks. He even said his talk with President Asad was "constructive." Not what Washington hoped for, on doubt. Resolution 1559 has no legs left. It accomplished its main mission, which was Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon. The US will need another UN resolution to hurt Syria further. Ideally, Washington would inspire a 1559-like resolution for the Syrian-Iraqi border, which would give the US international legitimacy and multi-lateral support for taking a tough line on Damascus over Jihadist infiltration into Iraq. Such a resolution would be infinitely more effective than the unilateral threat to take land along the border for a "security zone" or to create a no-fly zone over Kurdish areas. America will do neither of these two things. They are hot air. First, Syria's Kurds could not and would not replicate the sort of independent bridge-head that Iraq's Kurds did in northern Iraq. Second, an occupied border strip would have to be filled up with American and Iraqi forces to fight off what would surely be a major Syrian insurgency. Those troops don't exist. If they did, America would already have placed them along the border. Washington is trying to wind down its Iraq involvement, not wind it up. Anyway, by taking Syrian land, America would only inspire the formation of a Hizbullah-like insurgency from the Arab tribes of the region. "The Bagara kick Butt" - I can already see the headlines. (The Bagara are the biggest Arab tribe in the North-east. A member of the tribe told me yesterday that tribal members are already itching to fight in Iraq. If their land were taken by US troops, there would be no holding them back.) The point of this digression is to say that the US is powerless on the Iraqi border issue. Now that resolution 1559 is useless as a political weapon with which to beat Syria, Washington is searching for a new fulcrum with which to bend Syria to its will. If it had not acted unilaterally in Iraq, the UN might be disposed today to help put pressure on Syria to take more vigorous measures on the border. Because the US stiff-armed the UN and Europeans in declaring war on Iraq, most Europeans are secretly happy to see American screwing up in Iraq today. They will not lend a hand by squeezing Syria on the issue. Lebanon was one thing. Iraq is another. There will be no 1559 for the Iraq border. The Turks, according to this al-Hayat article by Yusif Sharif, are trying to repair relations with the United States, but the two countries are far from seeing eye to eye on Syria. When President Bush and Erdoghan met this weekend, they discussed strategic differences over Cyprus and Iraq, but when the subject of Syria came up, both leaders discovered they had such profound disagreements that conversation ceased. The silence extended for over a minute! Turkey will not isolate Syria. Here is the Hayat article:

وفي ما يتعلق بالملف السوري، أكد جميع من حضر لقاء الرئيسين انه شكل نقطة الخلاف الرئيسية بينهما، إلى حدّ جعل الحوار ينتهي إلى صمت عميق استغرق قرابة دقيقة كاملة. وقال أحد المسؤولين الأتراك المقربين من أردوغان لـ«الحياة»: «أكدت واشنطن لأردوغان ضرورة فرض عزلة كاملة على سورية لأنها لا تزال تدعم المقاومين في العراق وتتدخل في شؤون لبنان، إلا أن أردوغان الذي لم يلمس وجود أي إستراتيجية أميركية واضحة تجاه سورية أو نية لتغيير النظام هناك أو للقيام بعمل عسكري ضد دمشق، أصر على موقفه في شأن ضرورة دعم جهود الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد الإصلاحية». وفي ما يتعلق في الشأن السوري، تبدو حكومة حزب «العدالة والتنمية» مقتنعة تماماً بوجود فرصة أمام الرئيس الأسد لتنفيذ مشروع إصلاحي سياسي في سورية، على رغم قناعة الحكومة تلك «بوجود عناصر استخباراتية سورية تعمل لمصلحة عدد من القيادات السورية في لبنان من دون علم الرئيس الأسد».

The breakdown of the strategic Turkish - American alliance is explained here in an interview with the top analyst at Turkey's leading think tank. ( Founder and Chairman of Leading Turkish Think Tank: The U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership is Long Gone) It is worth reading.

Lebanon Elections

Contradictory attempts to explain the latest round of the Lebanese elections in the Christian heartland of the Metn led are revealed in these two headlines: "Pro-Syrian parties poised to win," wrote CNN

Aoun ran on a platform to defeat old-guard nepotism with the help of pro-Syrian groups.

Anti-Syrian Leader Scores Upset in Lebanese Elections Scotsman, UK Is Aoun pro-Syrian or anti-Syrian? This is the wrong question. Aoun's triumphal win with formerly pro-Syrian allies on his list in the heavily Christian and anti-Syrian Lebanon Mountain only goes to show how unimportant Syria has become in Lebanon today. If the first two rounds of Lebanon's elections were about Syria, this round was not. By staggering the elections, as Lebanon does over 4 successive weekends, results in a very different outcome than staging elections on one big day, as do most countries. The electorate and issues evolve with each round. The fact that this round was not about Syria was wonderfully elucidated during a recent US press conference. Sean McCormack, Bush's spokesman, told reporters there was evidence of Syrian meddling in the elections. They gave him good ribbing in this exchange:

REPORTER: Last week, you expressed some concerns about Syrian interference. Are those concerns - do those concerns have a basis in fact where these elections are concerned? So far, have you been able to observe any Syrian interference in the elections? MR. MCCORMACK: Well, I think our concerns are based on fact. I think it would be a little odd to have concerns not based on fact. In terms of a - QUESTION: It's happened. [Having concerns with no facts.] (Laughter.) QUESTION: WMD in Iraq?

Aoun's win demonstrates that Lebanese have local Lebanese issues on their mind now, which is a good sign. Christians believed that Hariri, Jumblatt, and Berri were getting greedy and cutting the Christians out of a future Lebanon. Yes, they had patched in a few Christians on the Hariri list, but once Christians saw Hariri and Jumblatt bring Berri into their coalition, promising him another term as Speaker of Parliament, they understood that Christians would be cut out of any real decision making in the future. Hence the Aoun Tsunami. Michael Young figured this out before the rest of us. Some commentators try to chip away at Michael's reputation for being smart - and more than smart, correct - by calling him the "Lebanese Neo-con," or the "Oriental Orientalist," or even the "Christian Curmudgeon," but this is sour grapes. He gets it right consistently. The proof is the long opinion piece he wrote over a week ago, which was featured by "Syria Comment," predicting a sharp Christian reaction to Jumblatt's machinations. He warned us that the Christians were angry that Hariri was following Jumblatt into an alliance with Nabih Berri. Christians understood only too well that their interests were being jettisoned by the Muslims. They were not chosing their candidates, Hariri and Jumblatt were. They would have no real say over Lebanon's future if the Muslims ganged up to rid the country of Lahoud in the name of taking revenge for Hariri's assassination and being "anti-Syrian." Christians realized that the growing Muslim coalition was no longer primarily about punishing Syria, it was really about taking power from Christians and running Lebanon on their own. That is why Aoun reached out to the erstwhile Syria supporters in the Metn and is now doing the same in the north. They are no longer defined as "pro-Syrians," because the game in Lebanon is no longer about Syria. When Jumblatt tried to cast Aoun as a "small Syrian tool" yesterday in the wake of his defeat, he was blowing smoke. The same logic applies to Jumblatt. He is not a "small Syria tool" because of his alliance with Hizbullah and Amal in the last round of elections; he is trying to win control of Lebanon for himself. That is what politicians do and must do. Lebanese stability depends on a strong understanding between Sunnis and Maronites. Christians played a key role, if not "the" key role in driving Syria out. No matter how much some hate to admit it, the Christians have been the real policemen of Lebanon's independence ever since they laid the foundations of the present Lebanese nation using French troops. Many Muslims viewed this effort as treason against the "greater Arab nation," which was to have its capital in Damascus. (Admittedly this is a grand simplification, but Muslims have been of two minds about their separate and distinct identity as Lebanese. Sure, we can blame this on the Christians for pressing Phoenicianism to absurd extremes. It takes two to tango. But Muslim "dual" identity has been at the heart of Lebanon's weakness.) Perhaps the biggest change brought about by the Hariri murder and recent Lebanese Intifada is that Muslims finally said "no" to Syria and unification Arabism, just as they said "yes" to Lebanonism. They did this in a loud and clear voice standing side by side with fellow Christian Lebanese and raising the red and white flag emblasoned with a cross and crescent. Keeping the focus on maintaining and building the Christian-Muslim alliance is what will build a better and more stable Lebanon. To Young's credit, his opinion piece in today’s Daily Star hereis not hate mail directed at Jumblatt. It is not an "I-told-you-so," gloat-piece about how he was right about Christian anger leading to Aoun's victory. It is really a warning shot at Aoun. He is praying that Aoun will not be the military ramrod of old who will press his victory too far. Michael warns his fellow Christians not to get greedy and not to seek revenge or do anything that will irremediably hurt the Christian-Muslim alliance that must be the foundation of Lebanon. Michael is not a sectarian (He is also not a Maronite as I erroneously stated earlier). Nor is he a neo-con. The proof is that he is an equal opportunity za`im basher when the interests of Lebanon, as he sees them, are being placed in jeopardy. Speaking of Lebanese neocons, one of my favorites is the ever pugnacious Tony Badran at "Across the Bay." His latest purple prose ably dissects Buthaina Shabaan's op-ed in AS-sharq al-Awsat accusing the United States of master-minding the recent Jihadist group arrested in Syria. While Buthaina is at it, she also accuses Washington of ordering the Kassir and Hariri murders, the logic being that they were bad for Syria. Hey, I just found a big cockroach in my kitchen. Cockroaches can't be good for Syria. I'm calling the US embassy. Read Tony's analysis of Aoun's victory. It is good, clear, and concise. The Jihadist story is a serious one, however. Many analysts in the West, Israel, and here in Syria too, will be tempted to say it was a Syrian plot, much as Buthaina called it an American plot. Why? Because it is good for the government. They accuse the government of fabricating the Islamist threat in order to win popular support for the Baath and to puncture US arguments that regime-change will lead to democracy and not extremism is Syria. This conspiracy logic is stupid no matter who is doing it. (Unless, of course, there is proof of conspiracy - they do happen.) There is no reason to believe that Syria would not have militants thinking about blowing up government buildings. In fact, it is crazy to believe that it does not. Syria has been very lucky not to have a terrorism problem as other Arab countries have these past 20 years. The US invasion of Iraq will inevitably inspire more Syrians to find the answer to their local political problems in extremism and fundamentalism. There will be blowback. Syria has played with fire by not sealing its border tighter. We are probably seeing blowback in the recent arrests, although there is no evidence any of the fundamentalists trained in Iraq or traveled there. There is a Saudi connection. Here is the story. 3 Killed in Syrian Anti-Insurgent Raid From Associated Press:

A jihadist group was allegedly plotting bomb attacks and targeting Middle East regimes. DAMASCUS, Syria — Syrian forces raided a suspected insurgent hide-out near the capital, killing two men, arresting a third and foiling bombing plots that targeted the nation's Justice Palace, the country's official news agency said. A member of Syria's security forces was killed and another was wounded in the clash Thursday in the Daff al-Shouk suburb of Damascus, according to a report late Friday by the SANA news agency. The group's leader, identified as Abu Omar, and an accomplice were killed and another suspect was arrested, SANA said. Identity cards were found next to the bodies bearing the names Omar Barakat and Arfan Yassin, both Syrian. It was not clear whether the cards belonged to the dead men. State-run TV showed footage from the scene of the confrontation. The bloodied bodies of two men lay on the apartment floor, one partially covered by a blanket. Machine guns, pistols, jihadist documents and mobile phones were scattered about. A picture on a Saudi driver's license apparently belonging to Yassin showed a bespectacled man with a black, bushy beard. Next to it lay U.S. dollars and Syrian pounds. One document reportedly described the group's hierarchy, including emirs in charge of fighters, explosives, missiles and military training. Another said the group's holy war should start with countries in the region ruled by "despotic regimes," naming Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. Attention then should be directed to "dictators" in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iraq, whose "people have been afflicted with the Crusaders," the document said. SANA said security forces received information several months ago that the group was planning bombings. The government began surveillance of the group after receiving the tips. A bomb was discovered and detonated on the road between Damascus and Zabadani.

Ibrahim Hamidi reports in Al-Hayat that now Islamist MP Muhammad Habash is claiming to have received threats from a Salafist group on his cell "right before the kidnapping of Sheikh Muhammad Maashouq al-Khaznawi." Habash also tied that group with other incidents in Syria, such as the killing of a police officer in Homs, at the beginning of the year. Hamidi also runs through the various names of this group. An-Nahar has more details. The film of the operation that ran on Syrian TV showed that one of the killed Islamists, both of whom were Syrian, held a Saudi driver's license. They also showed a document with the hierarchical structure of the group, with the various functions of each one laid out. (This para is stolen from Tony - thanks T.)