Lebanese Sovereignty: Will it be Restored?

One of the central arguments against incorporating Syria in negotiations to end the present fighting in Lebanon is that this would compromise Lebanese sovereignty so soon after the West was successful in pushing Syrian troops out of Lebanon. The presumption and claim is that the US is working to restore Lebanese sovereignty by liquidating Hizbullah as a military organization.

What will Lebanese sovereignty look like at the end of hostilities?

As things stand today, the plan is for Israel to clear a 20 kilometer zone of Lebanon of all civilians and fighters to create a no-go zone or free-fire zone. It will hold the strip of land between the Litani and the Israeli boarder either by continually strafing it with cannon fire or by actually leaving Israeli troops in place to occupy it. The 300,000 Lebanese that have been cleared from the region will not be allowed to return to their homes until the Lebanese government has sent the Lebanese army to displace Hizbullah. Very possibly the Lebanese Army will be backed up by a 10,000 to 12,000 strong compliment of UN troops, led by the French.

Israel and the States have also voiced the demand that European troops man the Lebanese ports and border crossings to inspect all goods coming into the country in order to interdict any arms shipments to Hizbullah from Syria or Iran.

Lebanon in the short run will lose its sovereignty to European troops should such a plan be carried forward.

The Western argument is that this will be a temporary loss of sovereignty until the Lebanese Army can be beefed up to replace UN troops.

But what promise is there that Lebanese troops will be able to replace Europeans in order to restore Lebanese sovereignty?

The three leading politicians in the Lebanese government are the President, Prime Minister, and Speaker of the Parliament. Only one of these officials, PM Siniora, is a friend of the US, and he does not command the Lebanese Army. The other two are friends of Syria.

President Emile Lahoud is the Commander in Chief of the Lebanese Army. In theory, he has constitutional control over military affairs. He was appointed by Syria, and his term as President runs for another year. The Presidential contender most likely to replace him is General Michel Aoun, who has allied with the Shiites of Lebanon and has sought to blunt the anti-Syrian attacks of the Siniora government over the last two years.

It will be very difficult for the West to build up the Lebanese army under these conditions, to say nothing of the often mentioned fact that the Lebanese Army has a large proportion of Shiite soldiers serving in its ranks, who may not be happy about the task of shooting at fellow Shiites and at Hizbullah members.

When PM Siniora and Jumblatt traveled to Washington earlier this year, they went to ask for money and arms to build up the Lebanese Army. Washington promised them a trifling 4 million dollars. This insult was an indication that Washington believes the army is a useless instrument so long as Lahoud is president. The main task of the Lebanese officials was to force Lahoud's exit from the office during the National Dialogue meetings that took place in March and April. Hariri's bloc failed to accomplish this task. In fact, it became clear that they preferred Lahoud to Aoun, his main contender. Hence, Washington gave no money to the army at the time.

Nothing has changed in the leadership of the army or presidency of Lebanon to suggest that Washington can now expect the Lebanese government to deploy the army against Hizbullah. How will it ever be able to replace a French led UN force? How will Lebanon regain its sovereignty should Israeli and European troops be placed on its soil to take over the task of policing national and border security. Lebanon rid itself of Syrian troops last year. It looks like it has merely exchanged them for some combination of Western and Israeli troops.

In some respects, the Lebanon war is a classic struggle between East and West over whose sphere of influence Lebanon will be included in. The power of the Hariri bloc is now largely finished. The Cedar revolution is over. Lebanon will return to its previous role of being the rope in a game of Tug of War.

A big question will be how far Hizbullah is willing to take its resistance role. Now that Israel has snatched an additional handful of Hizbullah officers in Baalbek to strengthen its bargaining position in the eventual prisoner exchange, we will have to see how Hizbullah responds. If it is willing to return to its 1980s tactics, it will abduct an equal number of Europeans and Americans to strengthen its hand. Fortunately John Waterbury left Lebanon for the States, where he cannot be taken or killed as two previous presidents of AUB - David Dodge and Malcolm Kerr - were. There are many other Americans still in Lebanon, however.
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Amid the diplomatic wrangling, Hizbullah's chief spokesman said his group will not agree to a cease-fire until all Israeli troops leave Lebanon.

"Declaring a cease-fire is not the concern of the people of Lebanon as long as there is one Israeli soldier on Lebanese soil ... It is the right of every Lebanese to fight until liberation," Hizbullah spokesman Hussein Rahal said in a live interview with Al-Jazeera TV network.

In Damascus, a European official said Syria has promised to use all of its influence on Hizbullah in a bid to bring an end to the fighting.

"The Syrian authorities are going to exercise all their influence over Hizbullah and over the various actors" in the conflict, said Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos after meeting with President Bashar al-Assad and other senior officials.

However, he told reporters, Syrian leaders want a "change in the circumstances and the political-military context in which Lebanon lives."

The Germans are negotiation with the Syrians to find a deal according to the Herald Tribune.

Sami Moubayed in his latest article: "The Three Lebanons" explains why it will be very difficult to restor Lebanese sovereignty in such a way that will be pleasing to either the US or Israel. He explains how Hariri and Siniora are losing popularity within their home base community. Sunnis are angry - and not just at Hizbullah. General Aoun has helped drive up Hizbullah popularity among Christians.